Home / MLB Projections MLB / Guardians @ Twins CLE @ MIN

CLEVELAND

GUARDIANSCLE

25-21  |  Road

5
FINAL
Wed, May 21 • 1:10 PM ET
Target Field
View Odds Details →

MINNESOTA

TWINSMIN

26-21  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Cade Smith
STARTING PITCHER

Cade Smith

#36 | Relief Pitcher
@
Joe Ryan
STARTING PITCHER

Joe Ryan

#41 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Cade Smith None-None 2.95 -- 0.2 --
Joe Ryan None-None 2.68 -- 5.0 4
None-None W-L None-None
2.95 ERA Ldr 2.68
-- WHIP --
0.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 5.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 4
AI Model Win Probability
GUARDIANS
49%
📊
TWINS
51%
GUARDIANS --
TWINS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 30%
Under 0 70%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.1
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.1 points (Minnesota)
GuardiansCLE (-3.5) 0 TwinsMIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Guardians Cover

39.4%

Twins Cover

60.6%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIN -1.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)

CLE By 1-2 runs

16.1%

CLE By 3-4 runs

10.4%

MIN By 1-2 runs

19.6%

MIN By 3-4 runs

16.5%

AI Model Projected Score
4.03
CLEVELAND
5.11
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
3
CLEVELAND
4
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Twins Win
51% Win Prob
D
Sim Twins Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Twins (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.1
D
Sim Twins (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.1
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2026 CLE @ MIN 9 - 2
Sep 12, 2026 CLE @ MIN 3 - 4
Sep 11, 2026 CLE @ MIN 5 - 2
Jul 23, 2026 MIN @ CLE 3 - 1
Jul 22, 2026 MIN @ CLE 10 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Cleveland CLE
vs
Minnesota MIN
162
Games Played
162
4.19
Runs / Game
▲ 4.56
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲ .245
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .317
.380
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .403
.696
OPS
▲ .720
162
Home Runs
▲ 187
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +37.0% more
Minnesota: 10.5 vs Cleveland: 7.7
Total Bases (L5) +32.0% more
Minnesota: 16.3 vs Cleveland: 12.3
Home Runs (Season) +15.4% more
Minnesota: 187.0 vs Cleveland: 162.0
Runs per Game (Season) +8.8% more
Minnesota: 4.6 vs Cleveland: 4.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CLE Score 4.0 5
MIN Score 5.1 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.4 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 10.5 / 7.7 3.0 / 11.0
Home Runs 0.8 / 0.9 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 9.0 / 9.4 6.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 16.3 / 12.3 4.0 / 16.0
Walks 2.6 / 3.5 3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE Advantage
86-79-0 (52.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
MIN
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
MIN Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2% Total +/-: +0.5
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
CLE
MIN
CLE
ML
52% 84-78
54% 87-74
50% 80-81
49% 80-82
ATS
59% 95-67
58% 93-68
59% 95-66
59% 95-67
TTL
51% 78-75-9
55% 88-71-2
53% 80-72-9
43% 69-90-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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