CHICAGO
CUBSCHC
29-20 | Road
2
MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
19-28 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Caleb Thielbar
#24 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Tyler Phillips
#30 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Thielbar | None-None | 2.55 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
| Tyler Phillips | None-None | 4.62 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.55 Ldr
ERA
4.62
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
CUBS
68%
MARLINS
32%
CUBS
--
MARLINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
44%
Under 0
56%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.9
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.9 points (Chicago)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CHC -1.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)
CHC By 1-2 runs
19.7%
CHC By 3-4 runs
18.2%
MIA By 1-2 runs
14.0%
MIA By 3-4 runs
8.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Chicago
5.53
CHICAGO
Miami
3.67
MIAMI
Simulated Score
Chicago
3
CHICAGO
Miami
5
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Cubs
Win
68% Win Prob
C
Sim
Marlins
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Cubs (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.9
D
Sim
Marlins (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.2
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 24, 2026
MIA @ CHC
1 - 2
Sep 23, 2026
MIA @ CHC
3 - 2
Sep 22, 2026
MIA @ CHC
8 - 2
Sep 6, 2026
CHC @ MIA
3 - 10
Sep 5, 2026
CHC @ MIA
6 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago
CHC
vs
Miami
MIA
2
Games Played
▲
162
0.50
Runs / Game
▲
4.41
.129
Avg (AVG)
▲
.249
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.326
.145
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.400
.374
OPS
▲
.727
0
Home Runs
▲
168
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+39.7% more
Chicago: 13.8
vs
Miami: 8.3
Total Bases (L5)
+28.8% more
Chicago: 21.2
vs
Miami: 15.1
Home Runs (Season)
+16800.0% more
Miami: 168.0
vs
Chicago: 0.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+391.0% more
Miami: 4.4
vs
Chicago: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHC Score
5.5
2
MIA Score
3.7
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.1
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.3 / 13.8
6.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
1.3 / 1.2
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.0 / 6.9
8.0 / 3.0
Total Bases
15.1 / 21.2
7.0 / 13.0
Walks
2.4 / 1.9
2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHC
Advantage
89-75-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
MIA
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
MIA
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5%
Total +/-: +1.0
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
CHC
MIA
CHC
ML
48%
78-84
58%
93-68
55%
88-72
51%
82-79
ATS
56%
91-71
61%
97-63-1
54%
86-74
47%
75-85-1
TTL
56%
88-69-5
52%
81-74-6
53%
82-73-5
46%
72-83-6
Contextual Game News
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White Sox Collapse in Game 4 Sets Up Winner-Take-All Game 5
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Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox