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KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

27-23  |  Road

8
FINAL
Wed, May 21 • 3:45 PM ET
Oracle Park
View Odds Details →

SAN FRANCISCO

GIANTSSF

29-20  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Lucas Erceg
STARTING PITCHER

Lucas Erceg

#60 | Relief Pitcher
@
Logan Webb
STARTING PITCHER

Logan Webb

#62 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Lucas Erceg None-None 1.25 -- 1.0 1
Logan Webb None-None 2.67 -- 4.0 5
None-None W-L None-None
1.25 Ldr ERA 2.67
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 4.0
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 5
AI Model Win Probability
ROYALS
45%
📊
GIANTS
55%
ROYALS --
GIANTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 35%
Under 0 65%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.2
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.2 points (San Francisco)
RoyalsKC (-3.5) 0 GiantsSF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Royals Cover

29.4%

Giants Cover

70.6%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SF -2.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SF)

KC By 1-2 runs

13.1%

KC By 3-4 runs

7.4%

SF By 1-2 runs

19.5%

SF By 3-4 runs

18.7%

AI Model Projected Score
3.25
KANSAS CITY
5.42
SAN FRANCISCO
Simulated Score
4
KANSAS CITY
5
SAN FRANCISCO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Giants Loss
55% Win Prob
D
Sim Giants Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Giants (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.2
D
Sim Giants (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.7
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 22, 2026 SF @ KC 4 - 5
Jul 21, 2026 SF @ KC 2 - 3
Jul 20, 2026 SF @ KC 3 - 4
May 21, 2025 KC @ SF 8 - 4
May 20, 2025 KC @ SF 2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Kansas City KC
vs
San Francisco SF
162
Games Played
162
4.26 ▲
Runs / Game
4.13
.247 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.245
.316 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.306
.402 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.718 ▲
OPS
.706
170
Home Runs
▲ 178
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +15.1% more
San Francisco: 2.4 vs Kansas City: 2.1
Home Runs (L5) +15.0% more
San Francisco: 0.5 vs Kansas City: 0.4
Strikeouts (L5) +9.7% more
San Francisco: 7.9 vs Kansas City: 7.2
Home Runs (Season) +4.7% more
San Francisco: 178.0 vs Kansas City: 170.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KC Score 3.3 8
SF Score 5.4 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.9 2.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.4 / 7.9 8.0 / 16.0
Home Runs 0.5 / 0.4 3.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 7.9 / 7.2 5.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 11.2 / 11.6 18.0 / 22.0
Walks 2.4 / 2.1 0.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC Advantage
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
SF
65-97-0 (40.1%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
SF Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SF
KC
SF
KC
ML
49% 79-81
55% 89-72
53% 85-75
56% 90-70
ATS
62% 100-60
57% 91-70
52% 83-77
58% 93-67
TTL
55% 82-68-10
58% 90-64-7
46% 68-81-11
54% 83-70-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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