TEXAS
RANGERSTEX
25-24 | Road
3
NEW YORK
YANKEESNYY
28-19 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jacob deGrom
#48 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Tim Hill
#41 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob deGrom | None-None | 2.33 | -- | 7.0 | 9 |
| Tim Hill | None-None | 3.80 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.33 Ldr
ERA
3.80
--
WHIP
--
7.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
9 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
RANGERS
41%
YANKEES
59%
RANGERS
--
YANKEES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
45%
Under 0
55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.9
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYY -0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYY)
TEX By 1-2 runs
16.6%
TEX By 3-4 runs
10.9%
NYY By 1-2 runs
19.5%
NYY By 3-4 runs
16.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Texas
5.01
TEXAS
New York
5.9
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
Texas
3
TEXAS
New York
5
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Yankees
Win
59% Win Prob
D
Sim
Yankees
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Yankees (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.9
C
Sim
Yankees (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 10.9
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 7, 2026
TEX @ NYY
2 - 9
May 6, 2026
TEX @ NYY
6 - 1
May 5, 2026
TEX @ NYY
4 - 7
Apr 29, 2026
NYY @ TEX
0 - 3
Apr 28, 2026
NYY @ TEX
3 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Texas
TEX
vs
New York
NYY
162
▲
Games Played
1
4.15
Runs / Game
▲
9.00
.242
Avg (AVG)
▲
.375
.317
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.447
.396
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.594
.713
OPS
▲
1.041
183
▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+116.9% more
New York: 9.0
vs
Texas: 4.2
Strikeouts (L5)
+83.3% more
New York: 11.4
vs
Texas: 6.2
Home Runs (L5)
+48.6% more
New York: 1.6
vs
Texas: 1.1
Total Bases (L5)
+25.4% more
New York: 14.9
vs
Texas: 11.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TEX Score
5.0
3
NYY Score
5.9
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.1
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.4 / 6.9
5.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
1.6 / 1.1
2.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
11.4 / 6.2
11.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
14.9 / 11.9
13.0 / 19.0
Walks
3.3 / 3.5
2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TEX
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
NYY
Advantage
95-71-0
(57.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TEX
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
NYY
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1%
Total +/-: +0.6
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYY
TEX
NYY
TEX
ML
47%
76-85
53%
86-76
52%
85-77
57%
91-70
ATS
59%
95-66
57%
92-70
53%
86-76
61%
98-63
TTL
53%
81-73-7
53%
78-70-14
53%
82-72-7
55%
81-66-14
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