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TEXAS

RANGERSTEX

25-25  |  Road

0
FINAL
Thu, May 22 • 12:35 PM ET
Yankee Stadium
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

YANKEESNYY

29-19  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Nathan Eovaldi
STARTING PITCHER

Nathan Eovaldi

#17 | Starting Pitcher
@
Carlos Rodon
STARTING PITCHER

Carlos Rodon

#55 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Nathan Eovaldi None-None 1.60 -- 6.0 6
Carlos Rodon None-None 2.88 -- 6.0 8
None-None W-L None-None
1.60 Ldr ERA 2.88
-- WHIP --
6.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 6.0
6 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 8
AI Model Win Probability
RANGERS
40%
📊
YANKEES
60%
RANGERS --
YANKEES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.9
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (New York)
RangersTEX (-3.5) 0 YankeesNYY (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rangers Cover

40.7%

Yankees Cover

59.3%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYY -0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYY)

TEX By 1-2 runs

16.5%

TEX By 3-4 runs

10.8%

NYY By 1-2 runs

19.6%

NYY By 3-4 runs

16.2%

AI Model Projected Score
4.68
TEXAS
5.62
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
3
TEXAS
5
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Yankees Win
60% Win Prob
C
Sim Yankees Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Yankees (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.9
C
Sim Yankees (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 10.3
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 7, 2026 TEX @ NYY 2 - 9
May 6, 2026 TEX @ NYY 6 - 1
May 5, 2026 TEX @ NYY 4 - 7
Apr 29, 2026 NYY @ TEX 0 - 3
Apr 28, 2026 NYY @ TEX 3 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Texas TEX
vs
New York NYY
162 ▲
Games Played
1
4.15
Runs / Game
▲ 9.00
.242
Avg (AVG)
▲ .375
.317
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .447
.396
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .594
.713
OPS
▲ 1.041
183 ▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season) +116.9% more
New York: 9.0 vs Texas: 4.2
Strikeouts (L5) +50.6% more
New York: 11.3 vs Texas: 7.5
Slugging Pct (Season) +19.8%
New York: 59.4% vs Texas: 39.6%
Batting Avg (Season) +13.3%
New York: 37.5% vs Texas: 24.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TEX Score 4.7 0
NYY Score 5.6 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.1 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 7.3 / 8.0 5.0 / 4.0
Home Runs 1.7 / 1.7 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 11.3 / 7.5 12.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 14.3 / 14.3 9.0 / 5.0
Walks 2.9 / 3.3 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TEX
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
NYY Advantage
95-71-0 (57.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TEX
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
NYY Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1% Total +/-: +0.6
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYY
TEX
NYY
TEX
ML
47% 76-85
53% 86-76
52% 85-77
57% 91-70
ATS
59% 95-66
57% 92-70
53% 86-76
61% 98-63
TTL
53% 81-73-7
53% 78-70-14
53% 82-72-7
55% 81-66-14
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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