MILWAUKEE
BREWERSMIL
24-26 | Road
8
PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
17-33 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Trevor Megill
#29 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Bryan Reynolds
#10 | Left Field| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Megill | None-None | 2.20 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Bryan Reynolds | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.20
ERA
--
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
--
1
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
BREWERS
64%
PIRATES
36%
BREWERS
--
PIRATES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
84%
Under 0
16%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
MILWAUKEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.6 points (Milwaukee)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around MIL -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIL)
MIL By 1-2 runs
19.7%
MIL By 3-4 runs
17.7%
PIT By 1-2 runs
14.6%
PIT By 3-4 runs
8.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Milwaukee
3.29
MILWAUKEE
Pittsburgh
1.66
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
Milwaukee
3
MILWAUKEE
Pittsburgh
4
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Brewers
Win
64% Win Prob
C
Sim
Pirates
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Brewers (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.6
D
Sim
Pirates (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
A
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 17, 2026
MIL @ PIT
4 - 7
Sep 16, 2026
MIL @ PIT
5 - 4
Sep 15, 2026
MIL @ PIT
5 - 1
Aug 6, 2026
PIT @ MIL
2 - 5
Aug 5, 2026
PIT @ MIL
2 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Milwaukee
MIL
vs
Pittsburgh
PIT
162
Games Played
162
5.14
▲
Runs / Game
4.73
.258
▲
Avg (AVG)
.253
.341
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.330
.403
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.404
.743
▲
OPS
.734
154
Home Runs
▲
186
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+82.6% more
Milwaukee: 1.1
vs
Pittsburgh: 0.2
Errors (L5)
+44.0% more
Milwaukee: 0.6
vs
Pittsburgh: 0.2
Total Bases (L5)
+27.2% more
Milwaukee: 12.0
vs
Pittsburgh: 8.8
Strikeouts (L5)
+26.2% more
Milwaukee: 10.0
vs
Pittsburgh: 7.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIL Score
3.3
8
PIT Score
1.7
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.6
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.9 / 7.1
9.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
0.2 / 1.1
1.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
7.4 / 10.0
5.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
8.8 / 12.0
16.0 / 20.0
Walks
2.5 / 2.4
3.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIL
Advantage
106-60-0
(63.9%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
PIT
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIL
Advantage
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7%
Total +/-: +0.8
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
MIL
PIT
MIL
ML
52%
82-77
62%
101-61
52%
85-78
52%
84-78
ATS
54%
86-73
58%
94-68
50%
81-82
48%
78-84
TTL
47%
72-81-6
40%
62-92-8
50%
79-78-6
50%
77-77-8
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