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ATLANTA

BRAVESATL

24-24  |  Road

7
FINAL
Thu, May 22 • 6:45 PM ET
Nationals Park
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

22-27  |  Home

8
Probable Pitchers
Dylan Lee
STARTING PITCHER

Dylan Lee

#52 | Relief Pitcher
@
Jose Tena
STARTING PITCHER

Jose Tena

#8 | Designated Hitter
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Dylan Lee None-None 2.57 -- 0.1 --
Jose Tena None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
2.57 ERA --
-- WHIP --
0.1 IP (Innings Pitched) --
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
BRAVES
55%
📊
NATIONALS
45%
BRAVES --
NATIONALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 70%
Under 0 30%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.3
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.3 points (Atlanta)
BravesATL (-3.5) 0 NationalsWSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Braves Cover

62.8%

Nationals Cover

37.2%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ATL -1.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)

ATL By 1-2 runs

19.7%

ATL By 3-4 runs

17.0%

WSH By 1-2 runs

15.5%

WSH By 3-4 runs

9.7%

AI Model Projected Score
4.46
ATLANTA
3.15
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
3
ATLANTA
6
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Braves Loss
55% Win Prob
D
Sim Nationals Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Braves (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.3
C
Sim Nationals (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.6
B
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 2, 2026 ATL @ WSH 9 - 0
Sep 1, 2026 ATL @ WSH 5 - 9
Aug 2, 2026 WSH @ ATL 2 - 4
Aug 1, 2026 WSH @ ATL 3 - 8
Jul 31, 2026 WSH @ ATL 2 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Atlanta ATL
vs
Washington WSH
1
Games Played
▲ 162
5.00
Runs / Game
▲ 5.07
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲ .246
.324 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.321
.433 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.423
.757 ▲
OPS
.744
1
Home Runs
▲ 210
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +46.8% more
Atlanta: 3.0 vs Washington: 1.6
Hits (L5) +10.8% more
Atlanta: 10.3 vs Washington: 9.1
OPS (Season) +1.3%
Atlanta: 75.7% vs Washington: 74.4%
Slugging Pct (Season) +1.0%
Atlanta: 43.3% vs Washington: 42.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ATL Score 4.5 7
WSH Score 3.2 8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.8 / 0.7 2.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.1 / 10.3 12.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 1.8 / 1.3 0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 7.7 / 5.7 8.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 16.8 / 16.1 16.0 / 17.0
Walks 1.6 / 3.0 4.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL Advantage
97-72-0 (57.4%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
WSH
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
WSH Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: 0.0
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
ATL
WSH
ATL
ML
57% 92-69
46% 77-90
54% 87-74
54% 90-78
ATS
58% 93-68
57% 96-71
57% 91-70
52% 87-81
TTL
50% 77-78-6
53% 83-73-11
42% 65-90-6
49% 76-80-11
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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