Home / MLB Projections MLB / Dodgers @ Mets LAD @ NYM

LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

31-19  |  Road

7
FINAL
Fri, May 23 • 7:10 PM ET
Citi Field
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

METSNYM

30-20  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Edwin Diaz
STARTING PITCHER

Edwin Diaz

#3 | Relief Pitcher
@
Brett Baty
STARTING PITCHER

Brett Baty

#7 | Third Base
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Edwin Diaz None-None 2.70 -- 1.0 --
Brett Baty None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
2.70 ERA --
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) --
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
DODGERS
52%
📊
METS
48%
DODGERS --
METS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 37%
Under 0 63%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Los Angeles)
DodgersLAD (-3.5) 0 MetsNYM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Dodgers Cover

64.5%

Mets Cover

35.5%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around LAD -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAD)

LAD By 1-2 runs

19.7%

LAD By 3-4 runs

17.4%

NYM By 1-2 runs

15.0%

NYM By 3-4 runs

9.2%

AI Model Projected Score
6.04
LOS ANGELES
4.55
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
4
LOS ANGELES
6
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Dodgers Win
52% Win Prob
D
Sim Mets Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Dodgers (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.5
C
Sim Mets (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 10.6
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 26, 2026 LAD @ NYM 3 - 8
Jul 25, 2026 LAD @ NYM 4 - 3
Jul 24, 2026 LAD @ NYM 4 - 2
Apr 15, 2026 NYM @ LAD 2 - 8
Apr 14, 2026 NYM @ LAD 1 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles LAD
vs
New York NYM
162
Games Played
162
4.94 ▲
Runs / Game
4.31
.257 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.338 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.424 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.395
.762 ▲
OPS
.705
204
Home Runs
204
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +67.9% more
Los Angeles: 1.3 vs New York: 0.4
Total Bases (L5) +22.8% more
Los Angeles: 12.6 vs New York: 9.8
Runs per Game (Season) +12.8% more
Los Angeles: 4.9 vs New York: 4.3
OPS (Season) +5.7%
Los Angeles: 76.2% vs New York: 70.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAD Score 6.0 7
NYM Score 4.6 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.1 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 7.0 / 7.1 7.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 0.4 / 1.3 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 9.8 / 9.8 11.0 / 12.0
Total Bases 9.8 / 12.6 12.0 / 11.0
Walks 3.6 / 2.7 7.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAD Advantage
103-63-0 (62.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
NYM
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
NYM Advantage
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3% Total +/-: 0.0
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
LAD
NYM
LAD
ML
50% 79-80
56% 92-73
48% 76-83
48% 79-87
ATS
58% 93-66
59% 98-67
49% 78-81
43% 72-94
TTL
55% 80-66-13
48% 77-82-6
51% 74-72-13
44% 70-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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