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KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

28-23  |  Road

1
FINAL
Fri, May 23 • 8:10 PM ET
Target Field
View Odds Details →

MINNESOTA

TWINSMIN

27-22  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Lucas Erceg
STARTING PITCHER

Lucas Erceg

#60 | Relief Pitcher
@
Brooks Lee
STARTING PITCHER

Brooks Lee

#22 | Third Base
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Lucas Erceg None-None 2.05 -- 0.1 1
Brooks Lee None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
2.05 ERA --
-- WHIP --
0.1 IP (Innings Pitched) --
1 K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
ROYALS
50%
📊
TWINS
50%
ROYALS --
TWINS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 30%
Under 0 70%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 points (Kansas City)
RoyalsKC (-3.5) 0 TwinsMIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Royals Cover

53.3%

Twins Cover

46.7%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around KC -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)

KC By 1-2 runs

18.9%

KC By 3-4 runs

14.5%

MIN By 1-2 runs

17.8%

MIN By 3-4 runs

12.6%

AI Model Projected Score
4.65
KANSAS CITY
4.32
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
4
KANSAS CITY
5
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Royals Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Sim Twins Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Royals (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.3
C
Sim Twins (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 6, 2026 MIN @ KC 4 - 3
Aug 5, 2026 MIN @ KC 1 - 2
Aug 4, 2026 MIN @ KC 2 - 8
Jul 30, 2026 KC @ MIN 3 - 4
Jul 29, 2026 KC @ MIN 4 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Kansas City KC
vs
Minnesota MIN
162
Games Played
162
4.26
Runs / Game
▲ 4.56
.247 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.245
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .317
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .403
.718
OPS
▲ .720
170
Home Runs
▲ 187
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +45.0% more
Kansas City: 0.6 vs Minnesota: 0.1
Hits (L5) +24.8% more
Kansas City: 10.6 vs Minnesota: 8.0
Walks (L5) +19.9% more
Kansas City: 3.4 vs Minnesota: 2.7
Total Bases (L5) +19.0% more
Kansas City: 15.0 vs Minnesota: 12.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KC Score 4.7 1
MIN Score 4.3 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 0.6 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 8.0 / 10.6 6.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 0.6 / 0.6 2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 8.0 / 7.2 6.0 / 11.0
Total Bases 12.2 / 15.0 13.0 / 10.0
Walks 2.7 / 3.4 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
MIN Advantage
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
MIN Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
KC
MIN
KC
ML
52% 84-78
55% 89-72
50% 80-81
56% 90-70
ATS
59% 95-67
57% 91-70
59% 95-66
58% 93-67
TTL
51% 78-75-9
58% 90-64-7
53% 80-72-9
54% 83-70-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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