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MIAMI

MARLINSMIA

19-29  |  Road

4
FINAL
Fri, May 23 • 9:38 PM ET
Angel Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

ANGELSLAA

24-25  |  Home

7
Probable Pitchers
Sandy Alcantara
STARTING PITCHER

Sandy Alcantara

#22 | Starting Pitcher
@
Travis d'Arnaud
STARTING PITCHER

Travis d'Arnaud

#25 | Catcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Sandy Alcantara None-None 8.04 -- 5.1 6
Travis d'Arnaud None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
8.04 ERA --
-- WHIP --
5.1 IP (Innings Pitched) --
6 K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
MARLINS
41%
📊
ANGELS
59%
MARLINS --
ANGELS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 58%
Under 0 42%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (Los Angeles)
MarlinsMIA (-3.5) 0 AngelsLAA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Marlins Cover

46.4%

Angels Cover

53.6%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around LAA -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAA)

MIA By 1-2 runs

17.8%

MIA By 3-4 runs

12.5%

LAA By 1-2 runs

19.0%

LAA By 3-4 runs

14.6%

AI Model Projected Score
3.97
MIAMI
4.33
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
3
MIAMI
4
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Angels Win
59% Win Prob
D
Sim Angels Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Angels (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.4
D
Sim Angels (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.3
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 9, 2026 LAA @ MIA 3 - 12
Aug 8, 2026 LAA @ MIA 0 - 7
Aug 7, 2026 LAA @ MIA 4 - 3
May 25, 2025 MIA @ LAA 3 - 0
May 24, 2025 MIA @ LAA 6 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Miami MIA
vs
Los Angeles LAA
162
Games Played
162
4.41 ▲
Runs / Game
4.04
.249 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.234
.326 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.400 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.369
.727 ▲
OPS
.679
168 ▲
Home Runs
154
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +166.7% more
Los Angeles: 6.1 vs Miami: 2.3
Home Runs (L5) +162.0% more
Los Angeles: 2.5 vs Miami: 0.9
Total Bases (L5) +75.9% more
Los Angeles: 21.8 vs Miami: 12.4
Hits (L5) +54.0% more
Los Angeles: 11.6 vs Miami: 7.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIA Score 4.0 4
LAA Score 4.3 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.0 / 0.5 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 11.6 / 7.5 6.0 / 14.0
Home Runs 2.5 / 0.9 2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 6.3 / 8.0 8.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 21.8 / 12.4 14.0 / 18.0
Walks 6.1 / 2.3 6.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA Advantage
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
LAA
62-100-0 (38.3%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
LAA
(50.6%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8% Total +/-: +0.6
LAA
71-88-3
O: 44.7% / U: 55.4% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAA
MIA
LAA
MIA
ML
59% 96-66
48% 78-84
55% 89-73
55% 88-72
ATS
60% 97-65
56% 91-71
51% 82-80
54% 86-74
TTL
53% 83-74-5
56% 88-69-5
52% 82-75-5
53% 82-73-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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