ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
26-25 | Road
5
ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
28-23 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Merrill Kelly
#29 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Kyle Leahy
#62 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merrill Kelly | None-None | 3.52 | -- | 6.0 | 6 |
| Kyle Leahy | None-None | 2.15 | -- | 0.1 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.52
ERA
Ldr 2.15
--
WHIP
--
6.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.1
6 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
DIAMONDBACKS
0%
CARDINALS
100%
DIAMONDBACKS
--
CARDINALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 points (Arizona)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ARI -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)
ARI By 1-2 runs
19.7%
ARI By 3-4 runs
17.2%
STL By 1-2 runs
15.3%
STL By 3-4 runs
9.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Arizona
5.75
ARIZONA
St. Louis
4.37
ST. LOUIS
Simulated Score
Arizona
4
ARIZONA
St. Louis
5
ST. LOUIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Diamondbacks
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cardinals
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Diamondbacks (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.4
D
Sim
Cardinals (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 10.1
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 23, 2026
ARI @ STL
10 - 6
Jul 19, 2026
STL @ ARI
7 - 8
Jul 18, 2026
STL @ ARI
3 - 5
Jul 17, 2026
STL @ ARI
5 - 4
Jun 24, 2026
ARI @ STL
9 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Arizona
ARI
vs
St. Louis
STL
162
Games Played
162
4.56
▲
Runs / Game
4.44
.246
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.318
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.313
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.378
.720
▲
OPS
.691
166
Home Runs
▲
167
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+76.7% more
Arizona: 1.8
vs
St. Louis: 0.4
Total Bases (L5)
+34.5% more
Arizona: 14.9
vs
St. Louis: 9.7
Walks (L5)
+23.5% more
Arizona: 3.4
vs
St. Louis: 2.6
Hits (L5)
+16.4% more
Arizona: 8.2
vs
St. Louis: 6.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ARI Score
5.8
5
STL Score
4.4
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.0
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.9 / 8.2
8.0 / 12.0
Home Runs
0.4 / 1.8
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
6.3 / 7.1
7.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
9.7 / 14.9
10.0 / 20.0
Walks
2.6 / 3.4
1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI
Advantage
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
STL
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
STL
Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
ARI
STL
ARI
ML
53%
85-74
54%
87-74
52%
84-77
54%
86-74
ATS
56%
89-70
57%
91-70
53%
85-76
56%
89-71
TTL
46%
68-81-10
52%
80-73-8
50%
76-75-10
49%
73-77-9
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