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EDMONTON

OILERSEDM

0-0-0  |  Road

3
FINAL
Fri, May 23 • 8:00 PM ET
American Airlines Center
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DALLAS

STARSDAL

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0
AI Model Win Probability
OILERS
100%
📊
STARS
0%
OILERS --
STARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
DALLAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 points (Dallas)
OilersEDM (-3.5) 0 StarsDAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Oilers Cover

24.2%

Stars Cover

75.8%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around DAL -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)

EDM By 1 goal

9.8%

EDM By 2-3 goals

6.6%

DAL By 1 goal

19.4%

DAL By 2-3 goals

33.3%

AI Model Projected Score
2.4
EDMONTON
3.8
DALLAS
Simulated Score
3
EDMONTON
4
DALLAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Stars Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Stars Loss
50% Win Prob
A
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Stars (+0) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.4
D
Sim Stars (+0) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 6.2
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 12, 2026 EDM @ DAL 2 - 7
Nov 25, 2025 DAL @ EDM 8 - 3
Nov 4, 2025 EDM @ DAL 3 - 4
May 29, 2025 EDM @ DAL 6 - 3
May 27, 2025 DAL @ EDM 1 - 4
Key Model Drivers
Power Play % (L5) +39.0%
Dallas: 59.7% vs Edmonton: 20.7%
Faceoff % (L5) +9.8%
Dallas: 57.0% vs Edmonton: 47.1%
Takeaways (L5) +34.4% more
Edmonton: 4.9 vs Dallas: 3.2
Blocked Shots (L5) +20.4% more
Edmonton: 18.6 vs Dallas: 14.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
EDM Score 2.4 3
DAL Score 3.8 0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 14.8 / 18.6 11.0 / 17.0
Faceoff % 57.0 / 47.1 59.6 / 40.4
Hits 31.9 / 39.1 29.0 / 50.0
Power Play % 59.7 / 20.7 0.0 / 20.0
Shots on Goal 24.2 / 29.9 25.0 / 25.0
Takeaways 3.2 / 4.9 5.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
69%MONEY31%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
40%MONEY60%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
78%MONEY22%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
EDM
DAL
EDM
ML
33% 1-2
75% 3-1
33% 1-2
50% 2-2
ATS
0% 0-3
75% 3-1
33% 1-2
25% 1-3
TTL
100% 3-0
25% 1-3
33% 1-2
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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