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ARIZONA

DIAMONDBACKSARI

26-24  |  Road

3
FINAL
Fri, May 23 • 8:15 PM ET
Busch Stadium
View Odds Details →

ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

27-23  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
👤
STARTING PITCHER

Ryan Thompson

#81 | Relief Pitcher
@
Kyle Leahy
STARTING PITCHER

Kyle Leahy

#62 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Ryan Thompson None-None 7.11 -- 1.0 --
Kyle Leahy None-None 1.24 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
7.11 ERA Ldr 1.24
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
DIAMONDBACKS
0%
📊
CARDINALS
100%
DIAMONDBACKS --
CARDINALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.8
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.8 points (Arizona)
DiamondbacksARI (-3.5) 0 CardinalsSTL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Diamondbacks Cover

67.3%

Cardinals Cover

32.7%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ARI -1.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)

ARI By 1-2 runs

19.7%

ARI By 3-4 runs

18.1%

STL By 1-2 runs

14.2%

STL By 3-4 runs

8.4%

AI Model Projected Score
5.91
ARIZONA
4.12
ST. LOUIS
Simulated Score
4
ARIZONA
5
ST. LOUIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Diamondbacks Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cardinals Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Diamondbacks (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.8
D
Sim Cardinals (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 23, 2026 ARI @ STL 10 - 6
Jul 19, 2026 STL @ ARI 7 - 8
Jul 18, 2026 STL @ ARI 3 - 5
Jul 17, 2026 STL @ ARI 5 - 4
Jun 24, 2026 ARI @ STL 9 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Arizona ARI
vs
St. Louis STL
162
Games Played
162
4.56 ▲
Runs / Game
4.44
.246 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.318 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.313
.402 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.378
.720 ▲
OPS
.691
166
Home Runs
▲ 167
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +62.2% more
Arizona: 1.6 vs St. Louis: 0.6
Total Bases (L5) +21.7% more
Arizona: 14.8 vs St. Louis: 11.6
Strikeouts (L5) +14.2% more
Arizona: 8.1 vs St. Louis: 7.0
OPS (Season) +2.9%
Arizona: 72.0% vs St. Louis: 69.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ARI Score 5.9 3
STL Score 4.1 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.1 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.3 / 8.4 4.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 0.6 / 1.6 0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 7.0 / 8.1 5.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 11.6 / 14.8 6.0 / 15.0
Walks 2.9 / 3.1 2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
72%MONEY28%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
45%MONEY55%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
48%MONEY52%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI Advantage
86-76-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
STL
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
STL Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5% Total +/-: +0.3
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
ARI
STL
ARI
ML
53% 85-74
54% 87-74
52% 84-77
54% 86-74
ATS
56% 89-70
57% 91-70
53% 85-76
56% 89-71
TTL
46% 68-81-10
52% 80-73-8
50% 76-75-10
49% 73-77-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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