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EDMONTON

OILERSEDM

0-0-0  |  Road

3
FINAL
Wed, May 21 • 8:00 PM ET
American Airlines Center
View Odds Details →

DALLAS

STARSDAL

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6
AI Model Win Probability
OILERS
100%
📊
STARS
0%
OILERS --
STARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
DALLAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (Dallas)
OilersEDM (-3.5) 0 StarsDAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Oilers Cover

41.3%

Stars Cover

58.7%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around DAL -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)

EDM By 1 goal

15.3%

EDM By 2-3 goals

14.2%

DAL By 1 goal

19.0%

DAL By 2-3 goals

23.5%

AI Model Projected Score
2.5
EDMONTON
2.94
DALLAS
Simulated Score
2
EDMONTON
4
DALLAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Stars Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Stars Win
50% Win Prob
A
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Stars (+0) Win
Proj Goals: -0.4
D
Sim Stars (+0) Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 5.4
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 6.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 12, 2026 EDM @ DAL 2 - 7
Nov 25, 2025 DAL @ EDM 8 - 3
Nov 4, 2025 EDM @ DAL 3 - 4
May 29, 2025 EDM @ DAL 6 - 3
May 27, 2025 DAL @ EDM 1 - 4
Key Model Drivers
Power Play % (L5) +37.6%
Dallas: 52.0% vs Edmonton: 14.5%
Faceoff % (L5) +2.7%
Dallas: 54.4% vs Edmonton: 51.8%
Blocked Shots (L5) +32.8% more
Edmonton: 20.4 vs Dallas: 13.7
Shots on Goal (L5) +29.0% more
Edmonton: 31.3 vs Dallas: 22.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
EDM Score 2.5 3
DAL Score 2.9 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 13.7 / 20.4 17.0 / 15.0
Faceoff % 54.4 / 51.8 62.1 / 37.9
Hits 30.8 / 37.1 34.0 / 43.0
Power Play % 52.0 / 14.5 75.0 / 33.3
Shots on Goal 22.2 / 31.3 28.0 / 27.0
Takeaways 2.9 / 3.9 4.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
46%MONEY54%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
9%MONEY91%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
43%MONEY57%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
EDM
DAL
EDM
ML
33% 1-2
75% 3-1
33% 1-2
50% 2-2
ATS
0% 0-3
75% 3-1
33% 1-2
25% 1-3
TTL
100% 3-0
25% 1-3
33% 1-2
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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