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PHILADELPHIA

PHILLIESPHI

30-18  |  Road

9
FINAL
Wed, May 21 • 8:40 PM ET
Coors Field
View Odds Details →

COLORADO

ROCKIESCOL

8-40  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Brandon Marsh
STARTING PITCHER

Brandon Marsh

#16 | Left Field
@
Zach Agnos
STARTING PITCHER

Zach Agnos

#36 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Brandon Marsh None-None -- -- -- --
Zach Agnos None-None 1.38 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 1.38
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
0%
📊
ROCKIES
100%
PHILLIES --
ROCKIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.8
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.8 points (Philadelphia)
PhilliesPHI (-3.5) 0 RockiesCOL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Phillies Cover

82.6%

Rockies Cover

17.4%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around PHI -3.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)

PHI By 1-2 runs

16.9%

PHI By 3-4 runs

19.7%

COL By 1-2 runs

8.5%

COL By 3-4 runs

3.9%

AI Model Projected Score
6.24
PHILADELPHIA
2.48
COLORADO
Simulated Score
5
PHILADELPHIA
4
COLORADO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Phillies Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Phillies Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Phillies (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -3.8
D
Sim Phillies (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.7
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 10, 2026 COL @ PHI 0 - 6
May 9, 2026 COL @ PHI 3 - 9
May 8, 2026 COL @ PHI 9 - 7
Apr 5, 2026 PHI @ COL 1 - 4
Apr 4, 2026 PHI @ COL 2 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia PHI
vs
Colorado COL
2
Games Played
▲ 162
3.50
Runs / Game
▲ 4.64
.247
Avg (AVG)
▲ .254
.286
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .322
.438 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.417
.724
OPS
▲ .739
3
Home Runs
▲ 180
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +45.0% more
Philadelphia: 10.6 vs Colorado: 5.9
Hits (L5) +41.2% more
Philadelphia: 12.6 vs Colorado: 7.4
Total Bases (L5) +34.7% more
Philadelphia: 19.1 vs Colorado: 12.5
Home Runs (L5) +28.0% more
Philadelphia: 1.2 vs Colorado: 0.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PHI Score 6.2 9
COL Score 2.5 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.8 / 0.6 3.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.4 / 12.6 11.0 / 12.0
Home Runs 0.9 / 1.2 1.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 5.9 / 10.6 3.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 12.5 / 19.1 17.0 / 22.0
Walks 2.9 / 2.0 5.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
94%TICKETS6%
91%MONEY9%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
93%TICKETS7%
95%MONEY5%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
84%MONEY16%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI Advantage
89-76-0 (53.9%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
COL
58-104-0 (35.8%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
COL Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7% Total +/-: +0.4
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COL
PHI
COL
PHI
ML
60% 97-64
59% 97-67
55% 88-73
49% 80-84
ATS
60% 97-64
65% 107-57
52% 83-78
51% 83-81
TTL
60% 93-62-6
57% 88-67-9
50% 77-78-6
51% 78-76-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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