PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
29-18 | Road
7
COLORADO
ROCKIESCOL
8-39 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jesus Luzardo
#44 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Jimmy Herget
#44 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesus Luzardo | None-None | 1.95 | -- | 6.0 | 10 |
| Jimmy Herget | None-None | 3.75 | -- | 2.2 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
1.95 Ldr
ERA
3.75
--
WHIP
--
6.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
2.2
10 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
2
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
0%
ROCKIES
100%
PHILLIES
--
ROCKIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Philadelphia)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around PHI -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)
PHI By 1-2 runs
18.4%
PHI By 3-4 runs
19.6%
COL By 1-2 runs
10.6%
COL By 3-4 runs
5.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Philadelphia
5.82
PHILADELPHIA
Colorado
2.81
COLORADO
Simulated Score
Philadelphia
4
PHILADELPHIA
Colorado
6
COLORADO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Phillies
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rockies
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Phillies (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Sim
Rockies (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.6
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 10, 2026
COL @ PHI
0 - 6
May 9, 2026
COL @ PHI
3 - 9
May 8, 2026
COL @ PHI
9 - 7
Apr 5, 2026
PHI @ COL
1 - 4
Apr 4, 2026
PHI @ COL
2 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia
PHI
vs
Colorado
COL
2
Games Played
▲
162
3.50
Runs / Game
▲
4.64
.247
Avg (AVG)
▲
.254
.286
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.322
.438
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.417
.724
OPS
▲
.739
3
Home Runs
▲
180
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+40.0% more
Philadelphia: 10.5
vs
Colorado: 6.3
Hits (L5)
+31.4% more
Philadelphia: 10.3
vs
Colorado: 7.1
Total Bases (L5)
+17.7% more
Philadelphia: 16.6
vs
Colorado: 13.7
Slugging Pct (Season)
+2.1%
Philadelphia: 43.8%
vs
Colorado: 41.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHI Score
5.8
7
COL Score
2.8
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.7 / 0.3
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.1 / 10.3
8.0 / 17.0
Home Runs
1.3 / 1.3
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
6.3 / 10.5
5.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
13.7 / 16.6
10.0 / 24.0
Walks
3.3 / 1.6
2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
COL
58-104-0
(35.8%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
COL
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COL
PHI
COL
PHI
ML
60%
97-64
59%
97-67
55%
88-73
49%
80-84
ATS
60%
97-64
65%
107-57
52%
83-78
51%
83-81
TTL
60%
93-62-6
57%
88-67-9
50%
77-78-6
51%
78-76-9
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