PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
28-18 | Road
9
COLORADO
ROCKIESCOL
8-38 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Cristopher Sanchez
#61 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Kyle Freeland
#21 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cristopher Sanchez | None-None | 3.10 | -- | 6.0 | 7 |
| Kyle Freeland | None-None | 5.68 | -- | 5.1 | 6 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.10 Ldr
ERA
5.68
--
WHIP
--
6.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
5.1
7 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
6
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
0%
ROCKIES
100%
PHILLIES
--
ROCKIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.5
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.5 points (Philadelphia)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around PHI -2.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)
PHI By 1-2 runs
19.1%
PHI By 3-4 runs
19.2%
COL By 1-2 runs
12.0%
COL By 3-4 runs
6.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Philadelphia
5.37
PHILADELPHIA
Colorado
2.84
COLORADO
Simulated Score
Philadelphia
5
PHILADELPHIA
Colorado
4
COLORADO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Phillies
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Phillies
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Phillies (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.5
D
Sim
Phillies (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.2
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 10, 2026
COL @ PHI
0 - 6
May 9, 2026
COL @ PHI
3 - 9
May 8, 2026
COL @ PHI
9 - 7
Apr 5, 2026
PHI @ COL
1 - 4
Apr 4, 2026
PHI @ COL
2 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia
PHI
vs
Colorado
COL
2
Games Played
▲
162
3.50
Runs / Game
▲
4.64
.247
Avg (AVG)
▲
.254
.286
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.322
.438
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.417
.724
OPS
▲
.739
3
Home Runs
▲
180
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+47.0% more
Philadelphia: 11.2
vs
Colorado: 5.9
Slugging Pct (Season)
+2.1%
Philadelphia: 43.8%
vs
Colorado: 41.7%
Home Runs (Season)
+5900.0% more
Colorado: 180.0
vs
Philadelphia: 3.0
Home Runs (L5)
+102.0% more
Colorado: 1.4
vs
Philadelphia: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHI Score
5.4
9
COL Score
2.8
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.0
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.6 / 7.0
6.0 / 17.0
Home Runs
1.4 / 0.4
1.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
5.9 / 11.2
7.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
14.5 / 9.9
12.0 / 30.0
Walks
3.9 / 2.3
2.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
COL
58-104-0
(35.8%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
COL
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COL
PHI
COL
PHI
ML
60%
97-64
59%
97-67
55%
88-73
49%
80-84
ATS
60%
97-64
65%
107-57
52%
83-78
51%
83-81
TTL
60%
93-62-6
57%
88-67-9
50%
77-78-6
51%
78-76-9
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