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FLORIDA

PANTHERSFLA

0-0-0  |  Road

6
FINAL
Wed, May 14 • 7:00 PM ET
Scotiabank Arena
View Odds Details →

TORONTO

MAPLE LEAFSTOR

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1
AI Model Win Probability
PANTHERS
0%
📊
MAPLE LEAFS
100%
PANTHERS --
MAPLE LEAFS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
FLORIDA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (Florida)
PanthersFLA (-3.5) 0 Maple LeafsTOR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Panthers Cover

53.8%

Maple Leafs Cover

46.2%

-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around FLA -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FLA)

FLA By 1 goal

18.2%

FLA By 2-3 goals

20.7%

TOR By 1 goal

16.6%

TOR By 2-3 goals

16.7%

AI Model Projected Score
3.53
FLORIDA
3.34
TORONTO
Simulated Score
2
FLORIDA
4
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Panthers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Maple Leafs Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Panthers (-0) Win
Proj Goals: -0.2
D
Sim Maple Leafs (+0) Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 6.9
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 6.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 11, 2026 FLA @ TOR 6 - 2
Feb 26, 2026 TOR @ FLA 1 - 5
Jan 6, 2026 FLA @ TOR 1 - 4
Dec 2, 2025 TOR @ FLA 4 - 1
May 18, 2025 FLA @ TOR 6 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5) +40.9% more
Florida: 5.8 vs Toronto: 3.4
Shots on Goal (L5) +22.1% more
Florida: 32.8 vs Toronto: 25.6
Hits (L5) +12.3% more
Florida: 46.5 vs Toronto: 40.7
Blocked Shots (L5) +62.8% more
Toronto: 20.3 vs Florida: 12.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
FLA Score 3.5 6
TOR Score 3.3 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 20.3 / 12.5 24.0 / 9.0
Faceoff % 59.6 / 41.5 47.5 / 52.5
Hits 40.7 / 46.5 49.0 / 54.0
Power Play % 19.9 / 20.4 0.0 / 25.0
Shots on Goal 25.6 / 32.8 32.0 / 32.0
Takeaways 3.4 / 5.8 4.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
40%MONEY60%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
21%TICKETS79%
46%MONEY54%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
83%TICKETS17%
90%MONEY10%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
FLA
TOR
FLA
ML
50% 2-2
0% 0-4
50% 2-2
0% 0-4
ATS
0% 0-4
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
TTL
100% 4-0
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
0% 0-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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