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ARIZONA

DIAMONDBACKSARI

22-21  |  Road

8
FINAL
Wed, May 14 • 3:45 PM ET
Oracle Park
View Odds Details →

SAN FRANCISCO

GIANTSSF

25-18  |  Home

7
Probable Pitchers
👤
STARTING PITCHER

Ryan Thompson

#81 | Relief Pitcher
@
Christian Koss
STARTING PITCHER

Christian Koss

#50 | Shortstop
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Ryan Thompson None-None 5.40 -- 1.0 2
Christian Koss None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
5.40 ERA --
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) --
2 K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
DIAMONDBACKS
100%
📊
GIANTS
0%
DIAMONDBACKS --
GIANTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.9
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.9 points (San Francisco)
DiamondbacksARI (-3.5) 0 GiantsSF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Diamondbacks Cover

31.9%

Giants Cover

68.1%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SF -1.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SF)

ARI By 1-2 runs

13.9%

ARI By 3-4 runs

8.1%

SF By 1-2 runs

19.7%

SF By 3-4 runs

18.2%

AI Model Projected Score
3.63
ARIZONA
5.51
SAN FRANCISCO
Simulated Score
3
ARIZONA
5
SAN FRANCISCO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Giants Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Giants Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Giants (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.9
D
Sim Giants (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.1
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 29, 2026 ARI @ SF 7 - 1
Aug 28, 2026 ARI @ SF 10 - 6
Aug 27, 2026 ARI @ SF 1 - 6
Jul 1, 2026 SF @ ARI 6 - 4
Jun 30, 2026 SF @ ARI 2 - 8
Season Statistics Comparison
Arizona ARI
vs
San Francisco SF
162
Games Played
162
4.56 ▲
Runs / Game
4.13
.246 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.245
.318 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.306
.402 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.720 ▲
OPS
.706
166
Home Runs
▲ 178
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +19.1% more
San Francisco: 9.1 vs Arizona: 7.7
Home Runs (Season) +7.2% more
San Francisco: 178.0 vs Arizona: 166.0
Errors (L5) +31.0% more
Arizona: 0.8 vs San Francisco: 0.5
Walks (L5) +24.4% more
Arizona: 3.4 vs San Francisco: 2.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ARI Score 3.6 8
SF Score 5.5 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.8 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.4 / 9.2 11.0 / 13.0
Home Runs 1.4 / 1.7 1.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 9.1 / 7.7 6.0 / 12.0
Total Bases 15.4 / 16.4 16.0 / 24.0
Walks 2.6 / 3.4 6.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
43%MONEY57%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
25%TICKETS75%
35%MONEY65%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
82%MONEY18%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI Advantage
86-76-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
SF
65-97-0 (40.1%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
SF
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5% Total +/-: +0.3
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SF
ARI
SF
ARI
ML
49% 79-81
54% 87-74
53% 85-75
54% 86-74
ATS
62% 100-60
57% 91-70
52% 83-77
56% 89-71
TTL
55% 82-68-10
52% 80-73-8
46% 68-81-11
49% 73-77-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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