ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
23-20 | Road
14
PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
25-17 | Home
7
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Gordon Graceffo
#44 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Orion Kerkering
#50 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gordon Graceffo | None-None | 5.91 | -- | 0.2 | 1 |
| Orion Kerkering | None-None | 4.32 | -- | 0.2 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
5.91
ERA
Ldr 4.32
--
WHIP
--
0.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.2
1
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
0%
PHILLIES
100%
CARDINALS
--
PHILLIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.8
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.8 points (St. Louis)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around STL -1.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)
STL By 1-2 runs
19.7%
STL By 3-4 runs
18.1%
PHI By 1-2 runs
14.1%
PHI By 3-4 runs
8.3%
AI Model Projected Score
St. Louis
5.92
ST. LOUIS
Philadelphia
4.09
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
St. Louis
3
ST. LOUIS
Philadelphia
5
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Cardinals
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Phillies
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Cardinals (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.8
D
Sim
Phillies (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 23, 2026
STL @ PHI
4 - 6
Aug 22, 2026
STL @ PHI
3 - 12
Aug 21, 2026
STL @ PHI
6 - 7
Aug 12, 2026
PHI @ STL
1 - 7
Aug 11, 2026
PHI @ STL
0 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
St. Louis
STL
vs
Philadelphia
PHI
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.44
▲
Runs / Game
3.50
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.313
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.286
.378
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.438
.691
OPS
▲
.724
167
▲
Home Runs
3
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+98.2% more
St. Louis: 167.0
vs
Philadelphia: 3.0
Home Runs (L5)
+38.1% more
St. Louis: 1.5
vs
Philadelphia: 0.9
Runs per Game (Season)
+21.2% more
St. Louis: 4.4
vs
Philadelphia: 3.5
Errors (L5)
+11.0% more
St. Louis: 0.1
vs
Philadelphia: 0.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
STL Score
5.9
14
PHI Score
4.1
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.0 / 0.1
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.9 / 7.5
7.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 1.5
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
9.6 / 8.0
10.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
13.1 / 13.6
8.0 / 7.0
Walks
2.6 / 1.8
3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STL
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STL
Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9%
Total +/-: +0.7
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
STL
PHI
STL
ML
59%
97-67
53%
85-74
49%
80-84
52%
84-77
ATS
65%
107-57
56%
89-70
51%
83-81
53%
85-76
TTL
57%
88-67-9
46%
68-81-10
51%
78-76-9
50%
76-75-10
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