Home / MLB Projections MLB / Angels @ Padres LAA @ SD

LOS ANGELES

ANGELSLAA

17-24  |  Road

1
FINAL
Wed, May 14 • 9:40 PM ET
Petco Park
View Odds Details →

SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

26-15  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Jose Fermin
STARTING PITCHER

Jose Fermin

#65 | Relief Pitcher
@
Adrian Morejon
STARTING PITCHER

Adrian Morejon

#50 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jose Fermin None-None 5.87 -- 0.2 2
Adrian Morejon None-None 3.32 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
5.87 ERA Ldr 3.32
-- WHIP --
0.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 1.0
2 Ldr K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
ANGELS
0%
📊
PADRES
100%
ANGELS --
PADRES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (Los Angeles)
AngelsLAA (-3.5) 0 PadresSD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Angels Cover

51.6%

Padres Cover

48.4%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around LAA -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAA)

LAA By 1-2 runs

18.7%

LAA By 3-4 runs

14.0%

SD By 1-2 runs

18.1%

SD By 3-4 runs

13.1%

AI Model Projected Score
3.87
LOS ANGELES
3.71
SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
3
LOS ANGELES
5
SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Angels Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Padres Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Angels (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.2
D
Sim Padres (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.6
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 19, 2026 SD @ LAA 2 - 1
Apr 18, 2026 SD @ LAA 4 - 1
Apr 17, 2026 SD @ LAA 0 - 8
May 14, 2025 LAA @ SD 1 - 5
May 13, 2025 LAA @ SD 4 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles LAA
vs
San Diego SD
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.04
Runs / Game
▲ 6.00
.234
Avg (AVG)
▲ .328
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .362
.369
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .563
.679
OPS
▲ .925
154 ▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +97.4% more
Los Angeles: 154.0 vs San Diego: 4.0
Errors (L5) +65.9% more
Los Angeles: 1.4 vs San Diego: 0.5
Walks (L5) +36.6% more
Los Angeles: 5.0 vs San Diego: 3.2
Home Runs (L5) +24.7% more
Los Angeles: 1.6 vs San Diego: 1.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAA Score 3.9 1
SD Score 3.7 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 1.4 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 9.2 / 7.2 7.0 / 4.0
Home Runs 1.2 / 1.6 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 10.7 / 7.6 7.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 14.3 / 13.5 11.0 / 8.0
Walks 3.2 / 5.0 2.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
12%TICKETS88%
12%MONEY88%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
19%TICKETS81%
27%MONEY73%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
81%MONEY19%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAA
62-100-0 (38.3%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
SD Advantage
94-74-0 (56.0%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAA
(50.6%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
SD Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAA
71-88-3
O: 44.7% / U: 55.4% Total +/-: +0.3
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
LAA
SD
LAA
ML
51% 85-83
59% 96-66
51% 85-82
55% 89-73
ATS
54% 91-77
60% 97-65
55% 92-75
51% 82-80
TTL
51% 82-80-6
53% 83-74-5
54% 86-74-6
52% 82-75-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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