INDIANA
PACERSIND
3-1 | Road
114
CLEVELAND
CAVALIERSCLE
1-3 | Home
105
AI Model Win Probability
PACERS
0%
CAVALIERS
100%
PACERS
--
CAVALIERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
240.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.7
INDIANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.7 points (Indiana)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around IND -0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IND)
IND By 1-7 points
25.9%
IND By 8-14 points
16.4%
CLE By 1-7 points
24.6%
CLE By 8-14 points
14.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Indiana
120.49
INDIANA
Cleveland
119.82
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
Indiana
108
INDIANA
Cleveland
112
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Pacers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cavaliers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Pacers (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -0.7
D
Sim
Cavaliers (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 240.3
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 220.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 5, 2026
IND @ CLE
108 - 117
Jan 6, 2026
CLE @ IND
120 - 116
Dec 1, 2025
CLE @ IND
135 - 119
Nov 21, 2025
IND @ CLE
109 - 120
May 13, 2025
IND @ CLE
114 - 105
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+25.0% more
Indiana: 31.0
vs
Cleveland: 23.2
Blocks (L5)
+21.9% more
Indiana: 5.7
vs
Cleveland: 4.5
Field Goal % (L5)
+5.2%
Indiana: 49.9%
vs
Cleveland: 44.7%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+4.7%
Indiana: 39.6%
vs
Cleveland: 34.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
IND Score
120.5
114
CLE Score
119.8
105
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.9 / 39.6
25.7 / 42.9
Assists
23.2 / 31.0
10.0 / 26.0
Blocks
4.5 / 5.7
3.0 / 8.0
Field Goal %
44.7 / 49.9
38.9 / 50.0
Free Throw %
82.1 / 78.9
70.3 / 77.3
Rebounding
46.0 / 39.9
46.0 / 47.0
Steals
8.2 / 6.5
8.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
15.5 / 13.3
12.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IND
19-63-0
(23.2%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
CLE
Advantage
60-40-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: -2.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IND
Advantage
40-42-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
CLE
40-60-0
(40.0%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: -2.4
⚖️ Over/Under
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.8
CLE
52-48-0
O: 52.0% / U: 48.0%
Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
IND
CLE
IND
ML
60%
69-46
48%
47-50
56%
55-44
54%
45-38
ATS
67%
75-37-3
59%
57-40
56%
55-44
54%
45-38
TTL
59%
68-47
54%
52-45
100%
99-0
100%
83-0
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