Home / MLB Projections MLB / Angels @ Padres LAA @ SD

LOS ANGELES

ANGELSLAA

17-23  |  Road

4
FINAL
Tue, May 13 • 9:40 PM ET
Petco Park
View Odds Details →

SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

25-15  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Jorge Soler
STARTING PITCHER

Jorge Soler

#12 | Designated Hitter
@
Yuki Matsui
STARTING PITCHER

Yuki Matsui

#1 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jorge Soler None-None -- -- -- --
Yuki Matsui None-None 2.00 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 2.00
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
ANGELS
0%
📊
PADRES
100%
ANGELS --
PADRES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.6
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.6 points (Los Angeles)
AngelsLAA (-3.5) 0 PadresSD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Angels Cover

55.6%

Padres Cover

44.4%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around LAA -0.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAA)

LAA By 1-2 runs

19.2%

LAA By 3-4 runs

15.2%

SD By 1-2 runs

17.3%

SD By 3-4 runs

11.9%

AI Model Projected Score
3.92
LOS ANGELES
3.36
SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
3
LOS ANGELES
5
SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Angels Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Padres Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Angels (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.6
D
Sim Padres (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.3
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 19, 2026 SD @ LAA 2 - 1
Apr 18, 2026 SD @ LAA 4 - 1
Apr 17, 2026 SD @ LAA 0 - 8
May 14, 2025 LAA @ SD 1 - 5
May 13, 2025 LAA @ SD 4 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles LAA
vs
San Diego SD
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.04
Runs / Game
▲ 6.00
.234
Avg (AVG)
▲ .328
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .362
.369
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .563
.679
OPS
▲ .925
154 ▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +97.4% more
Los Angeles: 154.0 vs San Diego: 4.0
Errors (L5) +33.0% more
Los Angeles: 1.0 vs San Diego: 0.7
Hits (L5) +59.5% more
San Diego: 10.8 vs Los Angeles: 6.7
Runs per Game (Season) +48.5% more
San Diego: 6.0 vs Los Angeles: 4.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAA Score 3.9 4
SD Score 3.4 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.7 / 1.0 0.0 / 2.0
Hits 10.8 / 6.7 6.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 1.3 / 1.4 1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 10.5 / 7.8 11.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 16.9 / 12.8 9.0 / 15.0
Walks 4.3 / 3.5 1.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
10%TICKETS90%
4%MONEY96%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
12%TICKETS88%
2%MONEY98%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
65%MONEY35%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAA
62-100-0 (38.3%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
SD Advantage
94-74-0 (56.0%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAA
(50.6%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
SD Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAA
71-88-3
O: 44.7% / U: 55.4% Total +/-: +0.3
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
LAA
SD
LAA
ML
51% 85-83
59% 96-66
51% 85-82
55% 89-73
ATS
54% 91-77
60% 97-65
55% 92-75
51% 82-80
TTL
51% 82-80-6
53% 83-74-5
54% 86-74-6
52% 82-75-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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