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ARIZONA

DIAMONDBACKSARI

22-20  |  Road

6
FINAL
Tue, May 13 • 9:45 PM ET
Oracle Park
View Odds Details →

SAN FRANCISCO

GIANTSSF

24-18  |  Home

10
Probable Pitchers
Kevin Ginkel
STARTING PITCHER

Kevin Ginkel

#37 | Relief Pitcher
@
Camilo Doval
STARTING PITCHER

Camilo Doval

#57 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Kevin Ginkel None-None 12.71 -- 1.0 --
Camilo Doval None-None 1.37 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
12.71 ERA Ldr 1.37
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
DIAMONDBACKS
100%
📊
GIANTS
0%
DIAMONDBACKS --
GIANTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.7
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.7 points (San Francisco)
DiamondbacksARI (-3.5) 0 GiantsSF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Diamondbacks Cover

33.5%

Giants Cover

66.5%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SF -1.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SF)

ARI By 1-2 runs

14.4%

ARI By 3-4 runs

8.6%

SF By 1-2 runs

19.7%

SF By 3-4 runs

17.9%

AI Model Projected Score
3.59
ARIZONA
5.3
SAN FRANCISCO
Simulated Score
4
ARIZONA
3
SAN FRANCISCO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Giants Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Diamondbacks Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Giants (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.7
D
Sim Diamondbacks (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.9
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 29, 2026 ARI @ SF 7 - 1
Aug 28, 2026 ARI @ SF 10 - 6
Aug 27, 2026 ARI @ SF 1 - 6
Jul 1, 2026 SF @ ARI 6 - 4
Jun 30, 2026 SF @ ARI 2 - 8
Season Statistics Comparison
Arizona ARI
vs
San Francisco SF
162
Games Played
162
4.56 ▲
Runs / Game
4.13
.246 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.245
.318 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.306
.402 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.720 ▲
OPS
.706
166
Home Runs
▲ 178
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +53.0% more
San Francisco: 0.7 vs Arizona: 0.2
Strikeouts (L5) +8.1% more
San Francisco: 9.2 vs Arizona: 8.5
Home Runs (Season) +7.2% more
San Francisco: 178.0 vs Arizona: 166.0
Home Runs (L5) +59.6% more
Arizona: 1.6 vs San Francisco: 0.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ARI Score 3.6 6
SF Score 5.3 10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.7 / 0.2 0.0 / 2.0
Hits 7.6 / 8.4 13.0 / 11.0
Home Runs 0.6 / 1.6 3.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 9.2 / 8.5 9.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 10.5 / 15.6 25.0 / 18.0
Walks 1.9 / 2.2 4.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
35%MONEY65%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
22%TICKETS78%
24%MONEY76%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
64%MONEY36%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI Advantage
86-76-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
SF
65-97-0 (40.1%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
SF
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5% Total +/-: +0.3
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SF
ARI
SF
ARI
ML
49% 79-81
54% 87-74
53% 85-75
54% 86-74
ATS
62% 100-60
57% 91-70
52% 83-77
56% 89-71
TTL
55% 82-68-10
52% 80-73-8
46% 68-81-11
49% 73-77-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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