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WASHINGTON

CAPITALSWSH

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2
FINAL
Mon, May 12 • 7:00 PM ET
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CAROLINA

HURRICANESCAR

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5
AI Model Win Probability
CAPITALS
100%
📊
HURRICANES
0%
CAPITALS --
HURRICANES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.7
CAROLINA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.7 points (Carolina)
CapitalsWSH (-3.5) 0 HurricanesCAR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Capitals Cover

19.2%

Hurricanes Cover

80.8%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around CAR -1.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CAR)

WSH By 1 goal

7.9%

WSH By 2-3 goals

4.8%

CAR By 1 goal

18.5%

CAR By 2-3 goals

35.8%

AI Model Projected Score
2.12
WASHINGTON
3.86
CAROLINA
Simulated Score
2
WASHINGTON
4
CAROLINA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Hurricanes Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Hurricanes Win
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Hurricanes (+0) Win
Proj Goals: -1.7
D
Sim Hurricanes (+0) Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 6.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 6.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 2, 2026 WSH @ CAR 5 - 2
Jan 31, 2026 CAR @ WSH 3 - 4
Dec 11, 2025 CAR @ WSH 3 - 2
Nov 11, 2025 WSH @ CAR 4 - 1
May 15, 2025 CAR @ WSH 3 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Shots on Goal (L5) +46.1% more
Carolina: 31.8 vs Washington: 21.8
Power Play % (L5) +33.5%
Carolina: 49.7% vs Washington: 16.2%
Hits (L5) +20.0% more
Carolina: 37.1 vs Washington: 30.9
Takeaways (L5) +13.2% more
Carolina: 4.2 vs Washington: 3.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSH Score 2.1 2
CAR Score 3.9 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 11.8 / 26.8 13.0 / 23.0
Faceoff % 51.3 / 48.8 39.7 / 60.3
Hits 37.1 / 30.9 37.0 / 39.0
Power Play % 49.7 / 16.2 0.0 / 20.0
Shots on Goal 31.8 / 21.8 38.0 / 21.0
Takeaways 4.2 / 3.7 3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
67%MONEY33%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
66%MONEY34%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
54%MONEY46%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CAR
WSH
CAR
WSH
ML
75% 3-1
100% 3-0
25% 1-3
67% 2-1
ATS
50% 2-2
100% 3-0
100% 4-0
67% 2-1
TTL
0% 0-4
33% 1-2
25% 1-3
33% 1-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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