Home / MLB Projections MLB / Angels @ Padres LAA @ SD

LOS ANGELES

ANGELSLAA

16-23  |  Road

9
FINAL
Mon, May 12 • 9:40 PM ET
Petco Park
View Odds Details →

SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

25-14  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Jose Fermin
STARTING PITCHER

Jose Fermin

#65 | Relief Pitcher
@
Adrian Morejon
STARTING PITCHER

Adrian Morejon

#50 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jose Fermin None-None 6.43 -- 1.0 --
Adrian Morejon None-None 3.50 -- 0.1 --
None-None W-L None-None
6.43 ERA Ldr 3.50
-- WHIP --
1.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 0.1
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
ANGELS
0%
📊
PADRES
100%
ANGELS --
PADRES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 points (Los Angeles)
AngelsLAA (-3.5) 0 PadresSD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Angels Cover

53.0%

Padres Cover

47.0%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around LAA -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAA)

LAA By 1-2 runs

18.9%

LAA By 3-4 runs

14.4%

SD By 1-2 runs

17.9%

SD By 3-4 runs

12.7%

AI Model Projected Score
3.6
LOS ANGELES
3.3
SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
4
LOS ANGELES
6
SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Angels Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Padres Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Angels (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.3
D
Sim Padres (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 6.9
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 19, 2026 SD @ LAA 2 - 1
Apr 18, 2026 SD @ LAA 4 - 1
Apr 17, 2026 SD @ LAA 0 - 8
May 14, 2025 LAA @ SD 1 - 5
May 13, 2025 LAA @ SD 4 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles LAA
vs
San Diego SD
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.04
Runs / Game
▲ 6.00
.234
Avg (AVG)
▲ .328
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .362
.369
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .563
.679
OPS
▲ .925
154 ▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +97.4% more
Los Angeles: 154.0 vs San Diego: 4.0
Errors (L5) +48.6% more
Los Angeles: 1.1 vs San Diego: 0.5
Walks (L5) +32.0% more
Los Angeles: 4.3 vs San Diego: 2.9
Strikeouts (L5) +11.5% more
Los Angeles: 8.7 vs San Diego: 7.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAA Score 3.6 9
SD Score 3.3 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 1.1 1.0 / 1.0
Hits 11.6 / 6.6 9.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 1.4 / 1.1 1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 7.7 / 8.7 16.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 18.4 / 11.7 14.0 / 15.0
Walks 2.9 / 4.3 7.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
8%TICKETS92%
6%MONEY94%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
10%TICKETS90%
5%MONEY95%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
43%MONEY57%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAA
62-100-0 (38.3%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
SD Advantage
94-74-0 (56.0%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAA
(50.6%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
SD Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAA
71-88-3
O: 44.7% / U: 55.4% Total +/-: +0.3
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
LAA
SD
LAA
ML
51% 85-83
59% 96-66
51% 85-82
55% 89-73
ATS
54% 91-77
60% 97-65
55% 92-75
51% 82-80
TTL
51% 82-80-6
53% 83-74-5
54% 86-74-6
52% 82-75-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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