ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
21-20 | Road
2
SAN FRANCISCO
GIANTSSF
24-17 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Merrill Kelly
#29 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Christian Koss
#50 | Shortstop| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merrill Kelly | None-None | 3.71 | -- | 7.0 | 8 |
| Christian Koss | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.71
ERA
--
--
WHIP
--
7.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
--
8
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
DIAMONDBACKS
100%
GIANTS
0%
DIAMONDBACKS
--
GIANTS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.3
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.3 points (San Francisco)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SF -1.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SF)
ARI By 1-2 runs
15.5%
ARI By 3-4 runs
9.7%
SF By 1-2 runs
19.7%
SF By 3-4 runs
17.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Arizona
3.84
ARIZONA
San Francisco
5.16
SAN FRANCISCO
Simulated Score
Arizona
3
ARIZONA
San Francisco
5
SAN FRANCISCO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Giants
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Giants
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Giants (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.3
D
Sim
Giants (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 29, 2026
ARI @ SF
7 - 1
Aug 28, 2026
ARI @ SF
10 - 6
Aug 27, 2026
ARI @ SF
1 - 6
Jul 1, 2026
SF @ ARI
6 - 4
Jun 30, 2026
SF @ ARI
2 - 8
Season Statistics Comparison
Arizona
ARI
vs
San Francisco
SF
162
Games Played
162
4.56
▲
Runs / Game
4.13
.246
▲
Avg (AVG)
.245
.318
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.306
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.720
▲
OPS
.706
166
Home Runs
▲
178
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+81.0% more
San Francisco: 1.0
vs
Arizona: 0.2
Strikeouts (L5)
+26.3% more
San Francisco: 9.8
vs
Arizona: 7.7
Home Runs (Season)
+7.2% more
San Francisco: 178.0
vs
Arizona: 166.0
Home Runs (L5)
+28.6% more
Arizona: 1.3
vs
San Francisco: 1.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ARI Score
3.8
2
SF Score
5.2
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.0 / 0.2
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.3 / 8.0
8.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 1.3
0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
9.8 / 7.7
8.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
11.3 / 14.4
9.0 / 18.0
Walks
2.4 / 2.7
1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI
Advantage
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
SF
65-97-0
(40.1%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI
Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
SF
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SF
ARI
SF
ARI
ML
49%
79-81
54%
87-74
53%
85-75
54%
86-74
ATS
62%
100-60
57%
91-70
52%
83-77
56%
89-71
TTL
55%
82-68-10
52%
80-73-8
46%
68-81-11
49%
73-77-9
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