CLEVELAND
CAVALIERSCLE
1-2 | Road
109
INDIANA
PACERSIND
2-1 | Home
129
AI Model Win Probability
CAVALIERS
0%
PACERS
100%
CAVALIERS
--
PACERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
241.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.8
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.8 points (Cleveland)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around CLE -2.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)
CLE By 1-7 points
27.2%
CLE By 8-14 points
19.9%
IND By 1-7 points
21.8%
IND By 8-14 points
10.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Cleveland
122.33
CLEVELAND
Indiana
119.48
INDIANA
Simulated Score
Cleveland
108
CLEVELAND
Indiana
113
INDIANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Cavaliers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Pacers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Cavaliers (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -2.8
D
Sim
Pacers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 241.8
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 221.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 5, 2026
IND @ CLE
108 - 117
Jan 6, 2026
CLE @ IND
120 - 116
Dec 1, 2025
CLE @ IND
135 - 119
Nov 21, 2025
IND @ CLE
109 - 120
May 13, 2025
IND @ CLE
114 - 105
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+19.6% more
Cleveland: 8.4
vs
Indiana: 6.7
Rebounding (L5)
+14.8% more
Cleveland: 48.5
vs
Indiana: 41.3
Blocks (L5)
+60.7% more
Indiana: 7.6
vs
Cleveland: 4.7
Turnovers (L5)
+17.9% more
Indiana: 14.4
vs
Cleveland: 12.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CLE Score
122.3
109
IND Score
119.5
129
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.9 / 32.3
42.9 / 40.0
Assists
28.0 / 24.8
37.0 / 20.0
Blocks
7.6 / 4.7
2.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
48.6 / 45.6
52.7 / 42.9
Free Throw %
78.3 / 79.4
80.0 / 87.5
Rebounding
41.3 / 48.5
37.0 / 41.0
Steals
6.7 / 8.4
6.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
14.4 / 12.2
11.0 / 22.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE
Advantage
60-40-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: -2.4
IND
19-63-0
(23.2%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE
40-60-0
(40.0%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: -2.4
IND
Advantage
40-42-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
52-48-0
O: 52.0% / U: 48.0%
Total +/-: +0.9
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IND
CLE
IND
CLE
ML
48%
47-50
60%
69-46
54%
45-38
56%
55-44
ATS
59%
57-40
67%
75-37-3
54%
45-38
56%
55-44
TTL
54%
52-45
59%
68-47
100%
83-0
100%
99-0
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