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WASHINGTON

CAPITALSWSH

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0
FINAL
Sat, May 10 • 6:00 PM ET
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CAROLINA

HURRICANESCAR

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4
AI Model Win Probability
CAPITALS
100%
📊
HURRICANES
0%
CAPITALS --
HURRICANES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.8
CAROLINA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 points (Carolina)
CapitalsWSH (-3.5) 0 HurricanesCAR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Capitals Cover

34.8%

Hurricanes Cover

65.2%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around CAR -0.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CAR)

WSH By 1 goal

13.4%

WSH By 2-3 goals

11.1%

CAR By 1 goal

19.6%

CAR By 2-3 goals

27.3%

AI Model Projected Score
2.5
WASHINGTON
3.28
CAROLINA
Simulated Score
2
WASHINGTON
4
CAROLINA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Hurricanes Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Hurricanes Win
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Hurricanes (+0) Win
Proj Goals: -0.8
D
Sim Hurricanes (+0) Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 5.8
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 6.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 2, 2026 WSH @ CAR 5 - 2
Jan 31, 2026 CAR @ WSH 3 - 4
Dec 11, 2025 CAR @ WSH 3 - 2
Nov 11, 2025 WSH @ CAR 4 - 1
May 15, 2025 CAR @ WSH 3 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Shots on Goal (L5) +52.1% more
Carolina: 33.7 vs Washington: 22.1
Hits (L5) +29.3% more
Carolina: 32.1 vs Washington: 24.8
Faceoff % (L5) +3.7%
Carolina: 51.9% vs Washington: 48.2%
Blocked Shots (L5) +57.8% more
Washington: 26.7 vs Carolina: 11.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSH Score 2.5 0
CAR Score 3.3 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 11.2 / 26.7 13.0 / 27.0
Faceoff % 51.9 / 48.2 50.0 / 50.0
Hits 32.1 / 24.8 47.0 / 43.0
Power Play % 24.5 / 24.3 100.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal 33.7 / 22.1 28.0 / 21.0
Takeaways 5.3 / 5.1 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
58%MONEY42%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
41%MONEY59%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
65%MONEY35%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CAR
WSH
CAR
WSH
ML
75% 3-1
100% 3-0
25% 1-3
67% 2-1
ATS
50% 2-2
100% 3-0
100% 4-0
67% 2-1
TTL
0% 0-4
33% 1-2
25% 1-3
33% 1-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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