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CLEVELAND

CAVALIERSCLE

0-2  |  Road

126
FINAL
Fri, May 9 • 7:30 PM ET
Gainbridge Fieldhouse
View Odds Details →

INDIANA

PACERSIND

2-0  |  Home

104
AI Model Win Probability
CAVALIERS
0%
📊
PACERS
100%
CAVALIERS --
PACERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
243.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Cleveland)
CavaliersCLE (-3.5) 0 PacersIND (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cavaliers Cover

54.0%

Pacers Cover

46.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around CLE -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)

CLE By 1-7 points

26.2%

CLE By 8-14 points

16.9%

IND By 1-7 points

24.3%

IND By 8-14 points

13.7%

AI Model Projected Score
122.42
CLEVELAND
121.42
INDIANA
Simulated Score
108
CLEVELAND
112
INDIANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Cavaliers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Pacers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Cavaliers (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Pacers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 243.8
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 220.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 5, 2026 IND @ CLE 108 - 117
Jan 6, 2026 CLE @ IND 120 - 116
Dec 1, 2025 CLE @ IND 135 - 119
Nov 21, 2025 IND @ CLE 109 - 120
May 13, 2025 IND @ CLE 114 - 105
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +29.5% more
Cleveland: 10.0 vs Indiana: 7.1
Blocks (L5) +106.7% more
Indiana: 7.4 vs Cleveland: 3.6
Turnovers (L5) +33.2% more
Indiana: 15.2 vs Cleveland: 11.4
Assists (L5) +14.6% more
Indiana: 28.9 vs Cleveland: 25.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CLE Score 122.4 126
IND Score 121.4 104
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 41.8 / 33.6 30.0 / 29.8
Assists 28.9 / 25.3 26.0 / 24.0
Blocks 7.4 / 3.6 8.0 / 7.0
Field Goal % 50.9 / 47.4 43.8 / 42.0
Free Throw % 80.7 / 81.3 73.5 / 75.7
Rebounding 43.4 / 44.7 37.0 / 56.0
Steals 7.1 / 10.0 6.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 15.2 / 11.4 13.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
73%MONEY27%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
65%MONEY35%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
59%MONEY41%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE Advantage
60-40-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: -2.4
IND
19-63-0 (23.2%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE
40-60-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: -2.4
IND Advantage
40-42-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
52-48-0
O: 52.0% / U: 48.0% Total +/-: +0.9
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IND
CLE
IND
CLE
ML
48% 47-50
60% 69-46
54% 45-38
56% 55-44
ATS
59% 57-40
67% 75-37-3
54% 45-38
56% 55-44
TTL
54% 52-45
59% 68-47
100% 83-0
100% 99-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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