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DALLAS

STARSDAL

0-0-0  |  Road

0
FINAL
Fri, May 9 • 9:30 PM ET
Canada Life Centre
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WINNIPEG

JETSWPG

0-0-0  |  Home

4
AI Model Win Probability
STARS
100%
📊
JETS
0%
STARS --
JETS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
4.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
WINNIPEG
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Winnipeg)
StarsDAL (-3.5) 0 JetsWPG (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Stars Cover

22.8%

Jets Cover

77.2%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around WPG -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WPG)

DAL By 1 goal

9.2%

DAL By 2-3 goals

6.1%

WPG By 1 goal

19.2%

WPG By 2-3 goals

34.1%

AI Model Projected Score
1.62
DALLAS
3.11
WINNIPEG
Simulated Score
2
DALLAS
4
WINNIPEG
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Jets Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Jets Win
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Jets (+0) Win
Proj Goals: -1.5
D
Sim Jets (+0) Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 4.7
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 6.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 2, 2026 WPG @ DAL 0 - 3
Feb 2, 2026 WPG @ DAL 3 - 4
Dec 9, 2025 DAL @ WPG 4 - 3
Oct 9, 2025 DAL @ WPG 5 - 4
May 17, 2025 WPG @ DAL 1 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5) +143.5% more
Winnipeg: 5.8 vs Dallas: 2.4
Hits (L5) +94.6% more
Winnipeg: 49.5 vs Dallas: 25.5
Shots on Goal (L5) +32.8% more
Winnipeg: 32.1 vs Dallas: 24.2
Power Play % (L5) +29.8%
Dallas: 48.3% vs Winnipeg: 18.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DAL Score 1.6 0
WPG Score 3.1 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 16.7 / 18.2 13.0 / 13.0
Faceoff % 47.6 / 51.4 42.9 / 57.1
Hits 49.5 / 25.5 37.0 / 43.0
Power Play % 18.5 / 48.3 20.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal 32.1 / 24.2 25.0 / 21.0
Takeaways 5.8 / 2.4 5.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
34%MONEY66%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
29%MONEY71%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
80%TICKETS20%
86%MONEY14%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WPG
DAL
WPG
DAL
ML
50% 2-2
33% 1-2
25% 1-3
33% 1-2
ATS
25% 1-3
0% 0-3
100% 4-0
33% 1-2
TTL
50% 2-2
100% 3-0
50% 2-2
33% 1-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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