Home / NBA Projections NBA / Pacers @ Cavaliers IND @ CLE

INDIANA

PACERSIND

1-0  |  Road

120
FINAL
Tue, May 6 • 7:00 PM ET
Rocket Arena
View Odds Details →

CLEVELAND

CAVALIERSCLE

0-1  |  Home

119
AI Model Win Probability
PACERS
0%
📊
CAVALIERS
100%
PACERS --
CAVALIERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
239.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.4
INDIANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.4 points (Indiana)
PacersIND (-3.5) 0 CavaliersCLE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pacers Cover

59.3%

Cavaliers Cover

40.7%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around IND -2.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IND)

IND By 1-7 points

27.0%

IND By 8-14 points

19.1%

CLE By 1-7 points

22.5%

CLE By 8-14 points

11.6%

AI Model Projected Score
120.74
INDIANA
118.38
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
118
INDIANA
124
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Pacers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cavaliers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Pacers (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -2.4
D
Sim Cavaliers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 239.1
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 242.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 5, 2026 IND @ CLE 108 - 117
Jan 6, 2026 CLE @ IND 120 - 116
Dec 1, 2025 CLE @ IND 135 - 119
Nov 21, 2025 IND @ CLE 109 - 120
May 13, 2025 IND @ CLE 114 - 105
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +56.6% more
Indiana: 6.5 vs Cleveland: 2.8
Turnovers (L5) +23.1% more
Indiana: 13.7 vs Cleveland: 10.6
Assists (L5) +12.0% more
Indiana: 29.4 vs Cleveland: 25.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +6.9%
Indiana: 43.1% vs Cleveland: 36.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
IND Score 120.7 120
CLE Score 118.4 119
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.2 / 43.1 28.2 / 39.3
Assists 25.9 / 29.4 24.0 / 28.0
Blocks 2.8 / 6.5 5.0 / 9.0
Field Goal % 49.4 / 50.5 43.3 / 51.8
Free Throw % 79.0 / 84.8 85.7 / 72.4
Rebounding 45.6 / 43.2 43.0 / 44.0
Steals 9.5 / 7.1 11.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 10.6 / 13.7 13.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
35%MONEY65%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
45%MONEY55%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
64%MONEY36%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IND
19-63-0 (23.2%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
CLE Advantage
60-40-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: -2.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IND Advantage
40-42-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
CLE
40-60-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: -2.4
⚖️ Over/Under
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.8
CLE
52-48-0
O: 52.0% / U: 48.0% Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
IND
CLE
IND
ML
60% 69-46
48% 47-50
56% 55-44
54% 45-38
ATS
67% 75-37-3
59% 57-40
56% 55-44
54% 45-38
TTL
59% 68-47
54% 52-45
100% 99-0
100% 83-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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