ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
17-15 | Road
2
PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
18-14 | Home
7
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Brandon Pfaadt
#32 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Aaron Nola
#27 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Pfaadt | None-None | 3.79 | -- | 4.2 | 6 |
| Aaron Nola | None-None | 4.61 | -- | 6.0 | 8 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.79 Ldr
ERA
4.61
--
WHIP
--
4.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 6.0
6
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 8
AI Model Win Probability
DIAMONDBACKS
0%
PHILLIES
100%
DIAMONDBACKS
--
PHILLIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.9
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (Arizona)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ARI -0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)
ARI By 1-2 runs
19.5%
ARI By 3-4 runs
16.0%
PHI By 1-2 runs
16.6%
PHI By 3-4 runs
11.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Arizona
5.01
ARIZONA
Philadelphia
4.14
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
Arizona
4
ARIZONA
Philadelphia
5
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Diamondbacks
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Phillies
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Diamondbacks (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.9
D
Sim
Phillies (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.1
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 2, 2026
PHI @ ARI
0 - 1
Sep 1, 2026
PHI @ ARI
7 - 1
Aug 31, 2026
PHI @ ARI
2 - 1
Apr 12, 2026
ARI @ PHI
4 - 3
Apr 11, 2026
ARI @ PHI
3 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Arizona
ARI
vs
Philadelphia
PHI
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.56
▲
Runs / Game
3.50
.246
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.318
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.286
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.438
.720
OPS
▲
.724
166
▲
Home Runs
3
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+98.2% more
Arizona: 166.0
vs
Philadelphia: 3.0
Walks (L5)
+35.9% more
Arizona: 3.7
vs
Philadelphia: 2.4
Runs per Game (Season)
+23.2% more
Arizona: 4.6
vs
Philadelphia: 3.5
Hits (L5)
+9.6% more
Arizona: 8.9
vs
Philadelphia: 8.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ARI Score
5.0
2
PHI Score
4.1
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.3
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.0 / 8.9
11.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
1.4 / 0.8
2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.4 / 7.2
13.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
13.8 / 13.5
20.0 / 12.0
Walks
2.4 / 3.7
1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI
Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
ARI
PHI
ARI
ML
59%
97-67
54%
87-74
49%
80-84
54%
86-74
ATS
65%
107-57
57%
91-70
51%
83-81
56%
89-71
TTL
57%
88-67-9
52%
80-73-8
51%
78-76-9
49%
73-77-9
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