DENVER
NUGGETSDEN
3-2 | Road
105
LA
CLIPPERSLAC
2-3 | Home
111
AI Model Win Probability
NUGGETS
100%
CLIPPERS
0%
NUGGETS
--
CLIPPERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
230.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.8
LA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.8 points (LA)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around LAC -5.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAC)
DEN By 1-7 points
17.2%
DEN By 8-14 points
7.0%
LAC By 1-7 points
26.9%
LAC By 8-14 points
24.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Denver
112.42
DENVER
LA
118.25
LA
Simulated Score
Denver
118
DENVER
LA
115
LA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Clippers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Nuggets
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Clippers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.8
D
Sim
Nuggets (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 230.7
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 233.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 19, 2026
DEN @ LAC
114 - 115
Jan 30, 2026
LAC @ DEN
109 - 122
Nov 12, 2025
DEN @ LAC
130 - 116
Oct 12, 2025
DEN @ LAC
102 - 94
May 3, 2025
LAC @ DEN
101 - 120
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+38.3% more
LA: 6.2
vs
Denver: 4.5
Turnovers (L5)
+12.9% more
Denver: 13.1
vs
LA: 11.4
Free Throw % (L5)
+3.0%
Denver: 73.6%
vs
LA: 70.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DEN Score
112.4
105
LAC Score
118.3
111
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.7 / 39.5
30.8 / 40.7
Assists
26.6 / 26.7
23.0 / 24.0
Blocks
6.2 / 4.5
9.0 / 7.0
Field Goal %
49.5 / 48.9
50.0 / 52.4
Free Throw %
70.6 / 73.6
86.7 / 66.7
Rebounding
41.0 / 42.9
35.0 / 39.0
Steals
7.1 / 6.9
9.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
11.4 / 13.1
7.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEN
Advantage
56-32-0
(63.6%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
LAC
42-41-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: -0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEN
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
LAC
42-41-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: -0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8%
Total +/-: +3.4
LAC
41-42-0
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6%
Total +/-: +2.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAC
DEN
LAC
DEN
ML
60%
59-40
54%
57-48
55%
45-37
55%
47-39
ATS
66%
65-33-1
63%
65-38-2
55%
45-37
55%
47-39
TTL
59%
58-40-1
54%
56-48-1
100%
82-0
100%
86-0
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