Home / NBA Projections NBA / Magic @ Celtics ORL @ BOS

ORLANDO

MAGICORL

1-3  |  Road

89
FINAL
Tue, Apr 29 • 8:30 PM ET
TD Garden
View Odds Details →

BOSTON

CELTICSBOS

3-1  |  Home

120
AI Model Win Probability
MAGIC
100%
📊
CELTICS
0%
MAGIC --
CELTICS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
216.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.2
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.2 points (Boston)
MagicORL (-3.5) 0 CelticsBOS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Magic Cover

33.7%

Celtics Cover

66.3%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around BOS -4.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)

ORL By 1-7 points

19.8%

ORL By 8-14 points

9.0%

BOS By 1-7 points

27.4%

BOS By 8-14 points

21.9%

AI Model Projected Score
106.2
ORLANDO
110.41
BOSTON
Simulated Score
108
ORLANDO
115
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Celtics Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Celtics Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Celtics (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.2
D
Sim Celtics (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 216.6
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 12, 2026 ORL @ BOS 108 - 113
Nov 23, 2025 ORL @ BOS 129 - 138
Nov 9, 2025 BOS @ ORL 111 - 107
Nov 7, 2025 BOS @ ORL 110 - 123
Apr 29, 2025 ORL @ BOS 89 - 120
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +20.3% more
Boston: 5.7 vs Orlando: 4.7
Steals (L5) +19.5% more
Boston: 8.2 vs Orlando: 6.8
Turnovers (L5) +17.1% more
Boston: 13.6 vs Orlando: 11.6
Free Throw % (L5) +11.5%
Boston: 82.7% vs Orlando: 71.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ORL Score 106.2 89
BOS Score 110.4 120
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.9 / 28.8 54.2 / 21.1
Assists 18.9 / 20.9 30.0 / 19.0
Blocks 5.7 / 4.7 3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 44.3 / 44.2 56.6 / 37.5
Free Throw % 82.7 / 71.2 87.5 / 68.2
Rebounding 44.5 / 40.2 38.0 / 44.0
Steals 8.2 / 6.8 5.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 13.6 / 11.6 11.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
8%TICKETS92%
10%MONEY90%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
32%MONEY68%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
85%TICKETS15%
91%MONEY9%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ORL
49-42-0 (53.8%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -1.2
BOS Advantage
59-30-0 (66.3%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +2.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ORL
43-48-0 (47.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -1.2
BOS Advantage
51-38-0 (57.3%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +2.2
⚖️ Over/Under
ORL
47-44-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +0.7
BOS
32-57-0
O: 36.0% / U: 64.0% Total +/-: -3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
ORL
BOS
ORL
ML
57% 61-46
61% 65-42
53% 47-41
56% 51-40
ATS
59% 61-43-3
64% 68-38-1
53% 47-41
56% 51-40
TTL
56% 60-47
57% 61-46
100% 88-0
100% 91-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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