CLEVELAND
CAVALIERSCLE
3-0 | Road
138
MIAMI
HEATMIA
0-3 | Home
83
AI Model Win Probability
CAVALIERS
0%
HEAT
100%
CAVALIERS
--
HEAT
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
235.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.3
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.3 points (Cleveland)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around CLE -10.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)
CLE By 1-7 points
22.6%
CLE By 8-14 points
27.3%
MIA By 1-7 points
10.2%
MIA By 8-14 points
3.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Cleveland
122.82
CLEVELAND
Miami
112.51
MIAMI
Simulated Score
Cleveland
112
CLEVELAND
Miami
108
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Cavaliers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cavaliers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cavaliers (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -10.3
D
Sim
Cavaliers (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 235.3
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 220.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 27, 2026
MIA @ CLE
128 - 149
Mar 25, 2026
MIA @ CLE
120 - 103
Nov 12, 2025
CLE @ MIA
130 - 116
Nov 10, 2025
CLE @ MIA
138 - 140
Apr 28, 2025
CLE @ MIA
138 - 83
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+28.6% more
Cleveland: 8.0
vs
Miami: 5.7
Rebounding (L5)
+14.5% more
Cleveland: 44.8
vs
Miami: 38.3
Free Throw % (L5)
+8.0%
Cleveland: 79.7%
vs
Miami: 71.6%
Field Goal % (L5)
+1.8%
Cleveland: 49.4%
vs
Miami: 47.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CLE Score
122.8
138
MIA Score
112.5
83
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
41.0 / 40.3
20.4 / 46.8
Assists
24.5 / 26.5
17.0 / 26.0
Blocks
4.1 / 2.7
2.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
47.6 / 49.4
36.0 / 54.7
Free Throw %
71.6 / 79.7
60.0 / 88.0
Rebounding
38.3 / 44.8
45.0 / 51.0
Steals
5.7 / 8.0
4.0 / 15.0
Turnovers
14.7 / 11.7
19.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE
Advantage
60-40-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: -2.4
MIA
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE
40-60-0
(40.0%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: -2.4
MIA
Advantage
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
52-48-0
O: 52.0% / U: 48.0%
Total +/-: +0.9
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
CLE
MIA
CLE
ML
48%
46-50
60%
69-46
59%
48-34
56%
55-44
ATS
51%
49-47
67%
75-37-3
59%
48-34
56%
55-44
TTL
59%
57-39
59%
68-47
100%
82-0
100%
99-0
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