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CLEVELAND

CAVALIERSCLE

2-0  |  Road

124
FINAL
Sat, Apr 26 • 1:00 PM ET
Kaseya Center
View Odds Details →

MIAMI

HEATMIA

0-2  |  Home

87
AI Model Win Probability
CAVALIERS
0%
📊
HEAT
100%
CAVALIERS --
HEAT --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
238.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.7
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.7 points (Cleveland)
CavaliersCLE (-3.5) 0 HeatMIA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cavaliers Cover

64.3%

Heat Cover

35.7%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around CLE -3.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)

CLE By 1-7 points

27.4%

CLE By 8-14 points

21.1%

MIA By 1-7 points

20.6%

MIA By 8-14 points

9.7%

AI Model Projected Score
121.2
CLEVELAND
117.53
MIAMI
Simulated Score
112
CLEVELAND
118
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Cavaliers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Heat Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Cavaliers (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.7
D
Sim Heat (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 238.7
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 27, 2026 MIA @ CLE 128 - 149
Mar 25, 2026 MIA @ CLE 120 - 103
Nov 12, 2025 CLE @ MIA 130 - 116
Nov 10, 2025 CLE @ MIA 138 - 140
Apr 28, 2025 CLE @ MIA 138 - 83
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +34.4% more
Cleveland: 8.4 vs Miami: 5.5
Free Throw % (L5) +4.5%
Cleveland: 77.0% vs Miami: 72.5%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.8%
Cleveland: 41.7% vs Miami: 38.0%
Blocks (L5) +35.7% more
Miami: 4.7 vs Cleveland: 3.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CLE Score 121.2 124
MIA Score 117.5 87
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.0 / 41.7 47.1 / 37.5
Assists 27.7 / 23.7 18.0 / 32.0
Blocks 4.7 / 3.5 3.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 50.4 / 47.3 42.1 / 53.5
Free Throw % 72.5 / 77.0 70.0 / 85.0
Rebounding 42.9 / 44.2 29.0 / 46.0
Steals 5.5 / 8.4 6.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 13.5 / 12.1 17.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
81%TICKETS19%
78%MONEY22%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
70%MONEY30%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
61%MONEY39%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE Advantage
60-40-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: -2.4
MIA
43-40-0 (51.8%)
Margin: 2.3 ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE
40-60-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: -2.4
MIA Advantage
47-36-0 (56.6%)
Margin: 2.3 ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
52-48-0
O: 52.0% / U: 48.0% Total +/-: +0.9
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4% Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
CLE
MIA
CLE
ML
48% 46-50
60% 69-46
59% 48-34
56% 55-44
ATS
51% 49-47
67% 75-37-3
59% 48-34
56% 55-44
TTL
59% 57-39
59% 68-47
100% 82-0
100% 99-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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