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DALLAS

STARSDAL

0-0-0  |  Road

0
FINAL
Sat, Apr 26 • 9:30 PM ET
Ball Arena
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COLORADO

AVALANCHECOL

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4
AI Model Win Probability
STARS
100%
📊
AVALANCHE
0%
STARS --
AVALANCHE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
4.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.2
COLORADO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 points (Colorado)
StarsDAL (-3.5) 0 AvalancheCOL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Stars Cover

27.3%

Avalanche Cover

72.7%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around COL -1.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (COL)

DAL By 1 goal

10.9%

DAL By 2-3 goals

7.8%

COL By 1 goal

19.6%

COL By 2-3 goals

31.6%

AI Model Projected Score
1.74
DALLAS
2.95
COLORADO
Simulated Score
3
DALLAS
4
COLORADO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Avalanche Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Avalanche Win
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Avalanche (+0) Win
Proj Goals: -1.2
D
Sim Avalanche (+0) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 4.7
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 4, 2026 COL @ DAL 2 - 0
Mar 18, 2026 DAL @ COL 2 - 1
Mar 6, 2026 COL @ DAL 5 - 4
Oct 11, 2025 DAL @ COL 5 - 4
Oct 4, 2025 COL @ DAL 2 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +24.4% more
Colorado: 35.2 vs Dallas: 28.3
Faceoff % (L5) +3.1%
Colorado: 51.9% vs Dallas: 48.8%
Power Play % (L5) +6.3%
Dallas: 24.8% vs Colorado: 18.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DAL Score 1.7 0
COL Score 3.0 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 17.6 / 17.9 17.0 / 22.0
Faceoff % 51.9 / 48.8 50.0 / 50.0
Hits 35.2 / 28.3 39.0 / 38.0
Power Play % 18.5 / 24.8 100.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal 29.9 / 29.7 48.0 / 23.0
Takeaways 4.5 / 4.6 8.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
18%TICKETS82%
30%MONEY70%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
8%MONEY92%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
59%MONEY41%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COL
DAL
COL
DAL
ML
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
ATS
67% 2-1
0% 0-3
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
TTL
33% 1-2
100% 3-0
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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