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MILWAUKEE

BREWERSMIL

13-14  |  Road

5
FINAL
Sat, Apr 26 • 2:15 PM ET
Busch Stadium
View Odds Details →

ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

11-15  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Trevor Megill
STARTING PITCHER

Trevor Megill

#29 | Relief Pitcher
@
Riley O'Brien
STARTING PITCHER

Riley O'Brien

#61 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Trevor Megill None-None 4.91 -- 0.1 --
Riley O'Brien None-None 0.00 -- 0.1 --
None-None W-L None-None
4.91 ERA Ldr 0.00
-- WHIP --
0.1 IP (Innings Pitched) 0.1
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
BREWERS
100%
📊
CARDINALS
0%
BREWERS --
CARDINALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.6 points (St. Louis)
BrewersMIL (-3.5) 0 CardinalsSTL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Brewers Cover

34.2%

Cardinals Cover

65.8%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around STL -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)

MIL By 1-2 runs

14.6%

MIL By 3-4 runs

8.8%

STL By 1-2 runs

19.7%

STL By 3-4 runs

17.7%

AI Model Projected Score
4.6
MILWAUKEE
6.23
ST. LOUIS
Simulated Score
5
MILWAUKEE
3
ST. LOUIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Cardinals Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Brewers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Cardinals (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.6
D
Sim Brewers (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 10.8
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2026 STL @ MIL 4 - 6
Sep 26, 2026 STL @ MIL 2 - 3
Sep 25, 2026 STL @ MIL 4 - 8
Jul 9, 2026 MIL @ STL 8 - 4
Jul 8, 2026 MIL @ STL 1 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Milwaukee MIL
vs
St. Louis STL
162
Games Played
162
5.14 ▲
Runs / Game
4.44
.258 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.341 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.313
.403 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.378
.743 ▲
OPS
.691
154
Home Runs
▲ 167
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +8.4% more
St. Louis: 167.0 vs Milwaukee: 154.0
Walks (L5) +29.2% more
Milwaukee: 3.7 vs St. Louis: 2.6
Errors (L5) +22.0% more
Milwaukee: 1.0 vs St. Louis: 0.7
Runs per Game (Season) +13.6% more
Milwaukee: 5.1 vs St. Louis: 4.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIL Score 4.6 5
STL Score 6.2 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.7 / 1.0 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 8.7 / 9.3 11.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 0.3 / 0.4 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 5.7 / 5.4 6.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 11.6 / 11.9 19.0 / 16.0
Walks 2.6 / 3.7 3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
33%MONEY67%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
66%MONEY34%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
39%MONEY61%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIL Advantage
106-60-0 (63.9%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-:
STL
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIL
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-:
STL Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7% Total +/-: +0.8
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
MIL
STL
MIL
ML
53% 85-74
62% 101-61
52% 84-77
52% 84-78
ATS
56% 89-70
58% 94-68
53% 85-76
48% 78-84
TTL
46% 68-81-10
40% 62-92-8
50% 76-75-10
50% 77-77-8
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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