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BOSTON

CELTICSBOS

2-0  |  Road

93
FINAL
Fri, Apr 25 • 7:00 PM ET
Kia Center
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ORLANDO

MAGICORL

0-2  |  Home

95
AI Model Win Probability
CELTICS
0%
📊
MAGIC
100%
CELTICS --
MAGIC --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
220.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.7
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.7 points (Boston)
CelticsBOS (-3.5) 0 MagicORL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Celtics Cover

60.5%

Magic Cover

39.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around BOS -2.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)

BOS By 1-7 points

27.1%

BOS By 8-14 points

19.6%

ORL By 1-7 points

22.1%

ORL By 8-14 points

11.2%

AI Model Projected Score
111.56
BOSTON
108.9
ORLANDO
Simulated Score
118
BOSTON
105
ORLANDO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Celtics Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Celtics Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Celtics (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -2.7
D
Sim Celtics (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 220.5
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 12, 2026 ORL @ BOS 108 - 113
Nov 23, 2025 ORL @ BOS 129 - 138
Nov 9, 2025 BOS @ ORL 111 - 107
Nov 7, 2025 BOS @ ORL 110 - 123
Apr 29, 2025 ORL @ BOS 89 - 120
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +17.3% more
Boston: 8.6 vs Orlando: 7.1
Rebounding (L5) +11.4% more
Boston: 46.2 vs Orlando: 40.9
Free Throw % (L5) +3.7%
Boston: 74.9% vs Orlando: 71.1%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.5%
Boston: 35.7% vs Orlando: 32.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BOS Score 111.6 93
ORL Score 108.9 95
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.2 / 35.7 25.0 / 33.3
Assists 21.8 / 22.3 16.0 / 15.0
Blocks 5.7 / 5.0 4.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 46.6 / 44.7 41.0 / 44.6
Free Throw % 71.1 / 74.9 73.1 / 81.8
Rebounding 40.9 / 46.2 42.0 / 39.0
Steals 7.1 / 8.6 9.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 11.6 / 11.8 14.0 / 21.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
81%TICKETS19%
66%MONEY34%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
73%MONEY27%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
80%TICKETS20%
81%MONEY19%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS Advantage
59-30-0 (66.3%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +2.2
ORL
49-42-0 (53.8%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS Advantage
51-38-0 (57.3%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +2.2
ORL
43-48-0 (47.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
32-57-0
O: 36.0% / U: 64.0% Total +/-: -3.2
ORL
47-44-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ORL
BOS
ORL
BOS
ML
61% 65-42
57% 61-46
56% 51-40
53% 47-41
ATS
64% 68-38-1
59% 61-43-3
56% 51-40
53% 47-41
TTL
57% 61-46
56% 60-47
100% 91-0
100% 88-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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