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MIAMI

HEATMIA

0-1  |  Road

112
FINAL
Wed, Apr 23 • 7:30 PM ET
Rocket Arena
View Odds Details →

CLEVELAND

CAVALIERSCLE

1-0  |  Home

121
AI Model Win Probability
HEAT
0%
📊
CAVALIERS
100%
HEAT --
CAVALIERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
242.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Miami)
HeatMIA (-3.5) 0 CavaliersCLE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Heat Cover

52.0%

Cavaliers Cover

48.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MIA -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)

MIA By 1-7 points

25.8%

MIA By 8-14 points

16.1%

CLE By 1-7 points

24.8%

CLE By 8-14 points

14.5%

AI Model Projected Score
121.39
MIAMI
120.88
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
108
MIAMI
115
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Heat Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cavaliers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Heat (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -0.5
D
Sim Cavaliers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 242.3
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 27, 2026 MIA @ CLE 128 - 149
Mar 25, 2026 MIA @ CLE 120 - 103
Nov 12, 2025 CLE @ MIA 130 - 116
Nov 10, 2025 CLE @ MIA 138 - 140
Apr 28, 2025 CLE @ MIA 138 - 83
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +16.2% more
Miami: 28.1 vs Cleveland: 23.5
Blocks (L5) +15.4% more
Miami: 5.6 vs Cleveland: 4.7
Field Goal % (L5) +2.4%
Miami: 49.6% vs Cleveland: 47.2%
Steals (L5) +12.5% more
Cleveland: 7.6 vs Miami: 6.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIA Score 121.4 112
CLE Score 120.9 121
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.1 / 39.2 48.9 / 35.6
Assists 23.5 / 28.1 24.0 / 27.0
Blocks 4.7 / 5.6 1.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 47.2 / 49.6 47.6 / 51.9
Free Throw % 69.8 / 71.2 91.3 / 75.0
Rebounding 49.2 / 45.3 34.0 / 38.0
Steals 7.6 / 6.8 10.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 13.7 / 13.2 9.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
14%TICKETS86%
23%MONEY77%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
28%MONEY72%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
75%MONEY25%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
43-40-0 (51.8%)
Margin: 2.3 ATS +/-: +1.3
CLE Advantage
60-40-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: -2.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA Advantage
47-36-0 (56.6%)
Margin: 2.3 ATS +/-: +1.3
CLE
40-60-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: -2.4
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4% Total +/-: +3.0
CLE
52-48-0
O: 52.0% / U: 48.0% Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
MIA
CLE
MIA
ML
60% 69-46
48% 46-50
56% 55-44
59% 48-34
ATS
67% 75-37-3
51% 49-47
56% 55-44
59% 48-34
TTL
59% 68-47
59% 57-39
100% 99-0
100% 82-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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