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DALLAS

STARSDAL

0-0-0  |  Road

2
FINAL
Wed, Apr 23 • 9:30 PM ET
Ball Arena
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COLORADO

AVALANCHECOL

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1
AI Model Win Probability
STARS
100%
📊
AVALANCHE
0%
STARS --
AVALANCHE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.9
COLORADO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (Colorado)
StarsDAL (-3.5) 0 AvalancheCOL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Stars Cover

32.5%

Avalanche Cover

67.5%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around COL -0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (COL)

DAL By 1 goal

12.6%

DAL By 2-3 goals

10.0%

COL By 1 goal

19.7%

COL By 2-3 goals

28.6%

AI Model Projected Score
2.19
DALLAS
3.1
COLORADO
Simulated Score
3
DALLAS
4
COLORADO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Avalanche Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Avalanche Loss
50% Win Prob
A
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Avalanche (+0) Loss
Proj Goals: -0.9
D
Sim Avalanche (+0) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 5.3
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 4, 2026 COL @ DAL 2 - 0
Mar 18, 2026 DAL @ COL 2 - 1
Mar 6, 2026 COL @ DAL 5 - 4
Oct 11, 2025 DAL @ COL 5 - 4
Oct 4, 2025 COL @ DAL 2 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +17.2% more
Colorado: 29.8 vs Dallas: 25.5
Power Play % (L5) +7.2%
Colorado: 27.7% vs Dallas: 20.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DAL Score 2.2 2
COL Score 3.1 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 17.4 / 16.3 18.0 / 21.0
Faceoff % 51.2 / 49.8 53.3 / 46.7
Hits 29.8 / 25.5 46.0 / 34.0
Power Play % 27.7 / 20.5 0.0 / 33.3
Shots on Goal 30.8 / 30.5 28.0 / 28.0
Takeaways 5.8 / 5.4 2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
13%TICKETS87%
11%MONEY89%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
12%MONEY88%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
46%MONEY54%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COL
DAL
COL
DAL
ML
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
ATS
67% 2-1
0% 0-3
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
TTL
33% 1-2
100% 3-0
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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