Home / NBA Projections NBA / Heat @ Cavaliers MIA @ CLE

MIAMI

HEATMIA

0-0  |  Road

100
FINAL
Sun, Apr 20 • 7:00 PM ET
Rocket Arena
View Odds Details →

CLEVELAND

CAVALIERSCLE

0-0  |  Home

121
AI Model Win Probability
HEAT
0%
📊
CAVALIERS
100%
HEAT --
CAVALIERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
244.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.7
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.7 points (Miami)
HeatMIA (-3.5) 0 CavaliersCLE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Heat Cover

68.1%

Cavaliers Cover

31.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MIA -4.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)

MIA By 1-7 points

27.3%

MIA By 8-14 points

22.6%

CLE By 1-7 points

19.0%

CLE By 8-14 points

8.4%

AI Model Projected Score
124.53
MIAMI
119.82
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
105
MIAMI
112
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Heat Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cavaliers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Heat (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.7
D
Sim Cavaliers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 244.4
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 217.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 27, 2026 MIA @ CLE 128 - 149
Mar 25, 2026 MIA @ CLE 120 - 103
Nov 12, 2025 CLE @ MIA 130 - 116
Nov 10, 2025 CLE @ MIA 138 - 140
Apr 28, 2025 CLE @ MIA 138 - 83
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +20.4% more
Miami: 6.4 vs Cleveland: 5.1
Assists (L5) +19.0% more
Miami: 30.6 vs Cleveland: 24.8
Free Throw % (L5) +5.2%
Miami: 69.3% vs Cleveland: 64.1%
Field Goal % (L5) +4.8%
Miami: 50.0% vs Cleveland: 45.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIA Score 124.5 100
CLE Score 119.8 121
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.3 / 37.8 41.9 / 41.9
Assists 24.8 / 30.6 21.0 / 23.0
Blocks 5.1 / 6.4 4.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 45.2 / 50.0 51.1 / 48.8
Free Throw % 64.1 / 69.3 81.3 / 75.0
Rebounding 52.8 / 49.5 42.0 / 37.0
Steals 7.5 / 7.7 8.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 16.5 / 12.8 8.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
18%TICKETS82%
25%MONEY75%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
27%MONEY73%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
81%TICKETS19%
77%MONEY23%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
43-40-0 (51.8%)
Margin: 2.3 ATS +/-: +1.3
CLE Advantage
60-40-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: -2.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA Advantage
47-36-0 (56.6%)
Margin: 2.3 ATS +/-: +1.3
CLE
40-60-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: -2.4
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4% Total +/-: +3.0
CLE
52-48-0
O: 52.0% / U: 48.0% Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
MIA
CLE
MIA
ML
60% 69-46
48% 46-50
56% 55-44
59% 48-34
ATS
67% 75-37-3
51% 49-47
56% 55-44
59% 48-34
TTL
59% 68-47
59% 57-39
100% 99-0
100% 82-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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