ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
12-9 | Road
3
CHICAGO
CUBSCHC
14-9 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
👤
STARTING PITCHER
Ryan Thompson
#81 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Ethan Roberts
#39 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Thompson | None-None | 3.52 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
| Ethan Roberts | None-None | 1.69 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.52
ERA
Ldr 1.69
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
2 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
DIAMONDBACKS
100%
CUBS
0%
DIAMONDBACKS
--
CUBS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
12.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.1
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Chicago)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CHC -0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)
ARI By 1-2 runs
18.3%
ARI By 3-4 runs
13.3%
CHC By 1-2 runs
18.6%
CHC By 3-4 runs
13.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Arizona
6.34
ARIZONA
Chicago
6.42
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
Arizona
5
ARIZONA
Chicago
4
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Cubs
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Diamondbacks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Cubs (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.1
D
Sim
Diamondbacks (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 12.8
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 26, 2026
CHC @ ARI
0 - 2
Aug 25, 2026
CHC @ ARI
4 - 5
Aug 24, 2026
CHC @ ARI
7 - 0
May 3, 2026
ARI @ CHC
4 - 8
May 2, 2026
ARI @ CHC
0 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Arizona
ARI
vs
Chicago
CHC
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.56
▲
Runs / Game
0.50
.246
▲
Avg (AVG)
.129
.318
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.145
.720
▲
OPS
.374
166
▲
Home Runs
0
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+103.0% more
Chicago: 1.4
vs
Arizona: 0.3
Walks (L5)
+57.3% more
Chicago: 4.5
vs
Arizona: 2.9
Total Bases (L5)
+32.0% more
Chicago: 21.0
vs
Arizona: 15.9
Hits (L5)
+30.5% more
Chicago: 10.6
vs
Arizona: 8.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ARI Score
6.3
3
CHC Score
6.4
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.4 / 0.3
1.0 / 2.0
Hits
10.6 / 8.1
4.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
2.3 / 2.1
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.6 / 9.5
11.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
21.0 / 15.9
4.0 / 10.0
Walks
4.5 / 2.9
2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
CHC
Advantage
89-75-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI
Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHC
ARI
CHC
ARI
ML
58%
93-68
54%
87-74
51%
82-79
54%
86-74
ATS
61%
97-63-1
57%
91-70
47%
75-85-1
56%
89-71
TTL
52%
81-74-6
52%
80-73-8
46%
72-83-6
49%
73-77-9
Contextual Game News
Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox
Jeimer Candelario Opts for Free Agency After Brief Angels Stint
Guardians' Parker Messick Aims to Force Game 5 as Rookie Strikeo…
Rich Rodriguez's Arizona Legacy: All-Star Team Rekindles Tucson …
Alex Cora Joins Growing List of Unavailable Managers for Seattle…