SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
15-6 | Road
3
HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
10-10 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Xander Bogaerts
#2 | Shortstop@
STARTING PITCHER
Bryan King
#74 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xander Bogaerts | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Bryan King | None-None | 1.74 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
--
ERA
1.74
--
WHIP
--
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
100%
ASTROS
0%
PADRES
--
ASTROS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.6
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.6 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around HOU -0.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
SD By 1-2 runs
17.3%
SD By 3-4 runs
11.9%
HOU By 1-2 runs
19.2%
HOU By 3-4 runs
15.2%
AI Model Projected Score
San Diego
3.78
SAN DIEGO
Houston
4.34
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
San Diego
4
SAN DIEGO
Houston
5
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Astros
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Astros
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Astros (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.6
D
Sim
Astros (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.1
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 9, 2026
HOU @ SD
2 - 7
Aug 8, 2026
HOU @ SD
2 - 3
Aug 7, 2026
HOU @ SD
6 - 3
Apr 20, 2025
SD @ HOU
3 - 2
Apr 19, 2025
SD @ HOU
2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego
SD
vs
Houston
HOU
2
Games Played
2
6.00
▲
Runs / Game
3.00
.328
▲
Avg (AVG)
.169
.362
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.563
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.354
.925
▲
OPS
.582
4
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+11.0% more
Houston: 1.1
vs
San Diego: 1.0
Errors (L5)
+10.0% more
Houston: 0.3
vs
San Diego: 0.2
Runs per Game (Season)
+50.0% more
San Diego: 6.0
vs
Houston: 3.0
OPS (Season)
+34.3%
San Diego: 92.5%
vs
Houston: 58.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SD Score
3.8
3
HOU Score
4.3
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.2
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.8 / 8.5
7.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
1.1 / 1.0
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
6.5 / 7.1
4.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
12.6 / 13.5
9.0 / 17.0
Walks
2.1 / 2.1
4.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD
Advantage
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
HOU
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
HOU
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
SD
HOU
SD
ML
50%
81-82
51%
85-83
47%
77-87
51%
85-82
ATS
56%
91-72
54%
91-77
55%
90-74
55%
92-75
TTL
45%
70-84-9
51%
82-80-6
45%
69-86-9
54%
86-74-6
Contextual Game News
CC Sabathia's Divided Playoff Heart: Brewers Advance, Yankees Ex…
Yankees and Braves Urged to Cut Ties with Underperforming Stars …
Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox
Jazz Chisholm Jr. Shrugs Off Yankee Stadium Boos: 'It Didn't Hur…
Yankees' Offseason Blueprint: Securing Bednar and Blackburn Key …