Home / MLB Projections MLB / Padres @ Astros SD @ HOU

SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

15-5  |  Road

2
FINAL
Sat, Apr 19 • 7:10 PM ET
Daikin Park
View Odds Details →

HOUSTON

ASTROSHOU

9-10  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Adrian Morejon
STARTING PITCHER

Adrian Morejon

#50 | Relief Pitcher
@
Josh Hader
STARTING PITCHER

Josh Hader

#71 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Adrian Morejon None-None 0.87 -- 1.0 --
Josh Hader None-None 0.82 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
0.87 ERA Ldr 0.82
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
100%
📊
ASTROS
0%
PADRES --
ASTROS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Houston)
PadresSD (-3.5) 0 AstrosHOU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Padres Cover

30.8%

Astros Cover

69.2%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around HOU -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)

SD By 1-2 runs

13.5%

SD By 3-4 runs

7.8%

HOU By 1-2 runs

19.6%

HOU By 3-4 runs

18.4%

AI Model Projected Score
3.17
SAN DIEGO
5.18
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
4
SAN DIEGO
5
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Astros Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Astros Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Astros (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim Astros (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.4
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 9, 2026 HOU @ SD 2 - 7
Aug 8, 2026 HOU @ SD 2 - 3
Aug 7, 2026 HOU @ SD 6 - 3
Apr 20, 2025 SD @ HOU 3 - 2
Apr 19, 2025 SD @ HOU 2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego SD
vs
Houston HOU
2
Games Played
2
6.00 ▲
Runs / Game
3.00
.328 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.169
.362 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.563 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.354
.925 ▲
OPS
.582
4
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +24.3% more
Houston: 2.1 vs San Diego: 1.7
Home Runs (L5) +17.0% more
Houston: 1.1 vs San Diego: 1.0
Errors (L5) +15.0% more
Houston: 0.4 vs San Diego: 0.3
Runs per Game (Season) +50.0% more
San Diego: 6.0 vs Houston: 3.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SD Score 3.2 2
HOU Score 5.2 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.3 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.1 / 9.3 7.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 1.1 / 1.0 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 6.7 / 7.1 6.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 13.0 / 13.7 12.0 / 13.0
Walks 2.1 / 1.7 2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
83%TICKETS17%
78%MONEY22%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
94%MONEY6%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
71%MONEY29%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD Advantage
94-74-0 (56.0%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
HOU
81-83-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
HOU
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.2
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
SD
HOU
SD
ML
50% 81-82
51% 85-83
47% 77-87
51% 85-82
ATS
56% 91-72
54% 91-77
55% 90-74
55% 92-75
TTL
45% 70-84-9
51% 82-80-6
45% 69-86-9
54% 86-74-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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