MIAMI
HEATMIA
0-0 | Road
123
ATLANTA
HAWKSATL
0-0 | Home
114
AI Model Win Probability
HEAT
0%
HAWKS
100%
HEAT
--
HAWKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
244.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.5
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.5 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MIA -4.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
MIA By 1-7 points
27.3%
MIA By 8-14 points
22.3%
ATL By 1-7 points
19.4%
ATL By 8-14 points
8.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
124.66
MIAMI
Atlanta
120.18
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
Miami
118
MIAMI
Atlanta
112
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Heat
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Heat
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Heat (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.5
D
Sim
Heat (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 244.8
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 12, 2026
ATL @ MIA
117 - 143
Feb 20, 2026
MIA @ ATL
128 - 97
Feb 3, 2026
ATL @ MIA
127 - 115
Dec 26, 2025
MIA @ ATL
126 - 111
Oct 13, 2025
MIA @ ATL
118 - 119
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+29.2% more
Miami: 5.5
vs
Atlanta: 3.9
Steals (L5)
+21.3% more
Miami: 9.5
vs
Atlanta: 7.5
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+4.5%
Miami: 37.6%
vs
Atlanta: 33.1%
Field Goal % (L5)
+3.0%
Miami: 50.0%
vs
Atlanta: 46.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
124.7
123
ATL Score
120.2
114
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.1 / 37.6
34.0 / 38.1
Assists
28.1 / 29.4
30.0 / 33.0
Blocks
3.9 / 5.5
3.0 / 8.0
Field Goal %
46.9 / 50.0
43.1 / 50.0
Free Throw %
73.7 / 73.4
83.3 / 61.1
Rebounding
44.8 / 47.2
44.0 / 54.0
Steals
7.5 / 9.5
12.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
12.9 / 11.7
10.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
ATL
Advantage
48-40-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
Advantage
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
ATL
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
MIA
ATL
MIA
ML
50%
52-52
48%
46-50
55%
48-40
59%
48-34
ATS
53%
55-48-1
51%
49-47
55%
48-40
59%
48-34
TTL
53%
55-48-1
59%
57-39
100%
88-0
100%
82-0
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