Home / NBA Projections NBA / Mavericks @ Grizzlies DAL @ MEM

DALLAS

MAVERICKSDAL

0-0  |  Road

106
FINAL
Fri, Apr 18 • 9:30 PM ET
FedExForum
View Odds Details →

MEMPHIS

GRIZZLIESMEM

0-0  |  Home

120
AI Model Win Probability
MAVERICKS
100%
📊
GRIZZLIES
0%
MAVERICKS --
GRIZZLIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
223.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.7
MEMPHIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.7 points (Memphis)
MavericksDAL (-3.5) 0 GrizzliesMEM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mavericks Cover

19.3%

Grizzlies Cover

80.7%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MEM -8.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MEM)

DAL By 1-7 points

12.7%

DAL By 8-14 points

4.3%

MEM By 1-7 points

24.7%

MEM By 8-14 points

26.7%

AI Model Projected Score
107.18
DALLAS
115.84
MEMPHIS
Simulated Score
118
DALLAS
115
MEMPHIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Grizzlies Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mavericks Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Grizzlies (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -8.7
D
Sim Mavericks (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 233.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 12, 2026 DAL @ MEM 120 - 112
Feb 27, 2026 MEM @ DAL 124 - 105
Nov 22, 2025 MEM @ DAL 102 - 96
Nov 7, 2025 DAL @ MEM 104 - 118
Apr 18, 2025 DAL @ MEM 106 - 120
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +13.4% more
Memphis: 48.0 vs Dallas: 42.3
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.7%
Memphis: 40.3% vs Dallas: 36.6%
Free Throw % (L5) +3.6%
Memphis: 81.4% vs Dallas: 77.8%
Blocks (L5) +44.6% more
Dallas: 6.4 vs Memphis: 3.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DAL Score 107.2 106
MEM Score 115.8 120
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 40.3 / 36.6 41.9 / 31.6
Assists 25.2 / 26.5 30.0 / 25.0
Blocks 3.5 / 6.4 4.0 / 8.0
Field Goal % 48.1 / 48.6 47.0 / 47.1
Free Throw % 81.4 / 77.8 86.7 / 75.0
Rebounding 48.0 / 42.3 50.0 / 36.0
Steals 7.6 / 7.4 8.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 15.6 / 15.2 12.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
61%MONEY39%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
61%MONEY39%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
65%MONEY35%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DAL Advantage
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
MEM
25-57-0 (30.5%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DAL
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
MEM Advantage
37-45-0 (45.1%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9% Total +/-: +1.0
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MEM
DAL
MEM
DAL
ML
57% 59-44
62% 63-39
50% 41-41
54% 44-37
ATS
63% 65-38
67% 68-34
50% 41-41
54% 44-37
TTL
70% 71-31-1
59% 60-41-1
100% 82-0
100% 81-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Cooper Flagg and Mavericks Face Media at NBA China Games in Macao
dallasnews 0 minutes ago
Kyrie Irving Set for Mavericks Return in China After 19-Month AC…
yahoo 5 hours, 40 minutes ago
Desmond Bane Returns to FedExForum as Grizzlies Host Magic in Pr…
actionnews5 1 day ago
Zach Edey to Sit Out Grizzlies' Preseason Opener vs. Hawks, Team…
yahoo 2 days, 23 hours ago
Draymond Green Blames Voided Trade for Knecht's Lakers Downfall
yahoo 3 days, 18 hours ago