ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
12-7 | Road
11
CHICAGO
CUBSCHC
12-9 | Home
13
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Gabriel Moreno
#14 | Catcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Ethan Roberts
#39 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabriel Moreno | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Ethan Roberts | None-None | 2.08 | -- | 0.1 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
--
ERA
2.08
--
WHIP
--
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.1
--
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
DIAMONDBACKS
0%
CUBS
100%
DIAMONDBACKS
--
CUBS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
13.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Arizona)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ARI -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)
ARI By 1-2 runs
19.1%
ARI By 3-4 runs
14.9%
CHC By 1-2 runs
17.6%
CHC By 3-4 runs
12.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Arizona
6.76
ARIZONA
Chicago
6.31
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
Arizona
5
ARIZONA
Chicago
4
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Diamondbacks
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Diamondbacks
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Diamondbacks (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.5
D
Sim
Diamondbacks (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 13.1
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 26, 2026
CHC @ ARI
0 - 2
Aug 25, 2026
CHC @ ARI
4 - 5
Aug 24, 2026
CHC @ ARI
7 - 0
May 3, 2026
ARI @ CHC
4 - 8
May 2, 2026
ARI @ CHC
0 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Arizona
ARI
vs
Chicago
CHC
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.56
▲
Runs / Game
0.50
.246
▲
Avg (AVG)
.129
.318
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.145
.720
▲
OPS
.374
166
▲
Home Runs
0
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+100.0% more
Arizona: 166.0
vs
Chicago: 0.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+89.0% more
Arizona: 4.6
vs
Chicago: 0.5
Home Runs (L5)
+49.1% more
Arizona: 2.2
vs
Chicago: 1.1
Strikeouts (L5)
+36.5% more
Arizona: 11.4
vs
Chicago: 7.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ARI Score
6.8
11
CHC Score
6.3
13
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.8 / 0.7
3.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.8 / 7.8
18.0 / 15.0
Home Runs
1.1 / 2.2
5.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
7.2 / 11.4
9.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
14.7 / 15.8
38.0 / 25.0
Walks
4.9 / 3.2
3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
CHC
Advantage
89-75-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI
Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHC
ARI
CHC
ARI
ML
58%
93-68
54%
87-74
51%
82-79
54%
86-74
ATS
61%
97-63-1
57%
91-70
47%
75-85-1
56%
89-71
TTL
52%
81-74-6
52%
80-73-8
46%
72-83-6
49%
73-77-9
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