SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
15-4 | Road
4
HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
8-10 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Yuki Matsui
#1 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Josh Hader
#71 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yuki Matsui | None-None | 2.25 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Josh Hader | None-None | 0.90 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.25
ERA
Ldr 0.90
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
100%
ASTROS
0%
PADRES
--
ASTROS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.8
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.8 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around HOU -1.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
SD By 1-2 runs
14.1%
SD By 3-4 runs
8.3%
HOU By 1-2 runs
19.7%
HOU By 3-4 runs
18.1%
AI Model Projected Score
San Diego
3.03
SAN DIEGO
Houston
4.86
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
San Diego
4
SAN DIEGO
Houston
5
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Astros
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Astros
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Astros (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.8
D
Sim
Astros (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.9
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 9, 2026
HOU @ SD
2 - 7
Aug 8, 2026
HOU @ SD
2 - 3
Aug 7, 2026
HOU @ SD
6 - 3
Apr 20, 2025
SD @ HOU
3 - 2
Apr 19, 2025
SD @ HOU
2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego
SD
vs
Houston
HOU
2
Games Played
2
6.00
▲
Runs / Game
3.00
.328
▲
Avg (AVG)
.169
.362
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.563
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.354
.925
▲
OPS
.582
4
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+30.4% more
Houston: 2.7
vs
San Diego: 2.0
Errors (L5)
+23.0% more
Houston: 0.7
vs
San Diego: 0.4
Runs per Game (Season)
+50.0% more
San Diego: 6.0
vs
Houston: 3.0
OPS (Season)
+34.3%
San Diego: 92.5%
vs
Houston: 58.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SD Score
3.0
4
HOU Score
4.9
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.7 / 0.4
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.2 / 7.9
12.0 / 12.0
Home Runs
0.7 / 1.0
2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
6.6 / 8.7
7.0 / 4.0
Total Bases
9.4 / 12.1
20.0 / 17.0
Walks
2.7 / 2.0
1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD
Advantage
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
HOU
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
HOU
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
SD
HOU
SD
ML
50%
81-82
51%
85-83
47%
77-87
51%
85-82
ATS
56%
91-72
54%
91-77
55%
90-74
55%
92-75
TTL
45%
70-84-9
51%
82-80-6
45%
69-86-9
54%
86-74-6
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